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My question to every prediction market startup: "What statistical edge in predicting future events is there simply by asking for consensus?" or "Is prediction
by brilliantcode 10y ago
My question to every prediction market startup:
"What statistical edge in predicting future events is there simply by asking for consensus?" or
"Is prediction market good enough to predict stock ticker prices?" The answer should be an obvious no.
If prediction market did outperform simple random guesses, hedge funds would be all over it. Hedge funds are great at claiming to hold the golden chalice but prediction market isn't even on their radar.
Tinycast seems to suggest that your employees know the best but what evidence is there to suggest their consensus is an accurate indicator of future events?
The only difference with Tinycast seems to be that it's not running on Ethereum. Inside joke there, prediction markets on Ethereum seems dime a dozen with no real adopters but stories of scam and fraud.
Best Buy is the only one I know of that were using prediction markets internally...in 2008. I'm not hearing any fanfares about it now. They couldn't predict the fall and merger of Futureshop.
- bcroesch 10y agoAnother Cultivate Labs person here. You're absolutely right re: predicting stock prices. A prediction market isn't going to beat the market consistently. People looking for that use case end up disappointed. Prediction markets are more valuable to companies for things where there isn't already a large, liquid source of information flow. E.g. all the on-the-ground workers know a project is going to be late, but no one speaks up due to fear/office politics. Management thinks all is well since no one said otherwise. A PM is an effective way of taking a bunch of siloed information/knowledge (in employee's brains), aggregating it, and presenting it to decision makers.