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I'm all for that result, but [isn't the increase in probability of winning the Monty Hall problem by switching doors an increase from 1/3 to 1/2]? [ED: no] The
by dwringer 10y ago
I'm all for that result, but [isn't the increase in probability of winning the Monty Hall problem by switching doors an increase from 1/3 to 1/2]? [ED: no] The summary claims it is "doubled". I'm also interested in some kind of control for the concept that pigeons simply get bored inevitably with the first choice and tend to switch in spite of whether it gives them any advantage. I don't see evidence that this experiment covers that. Informative and interesting nevertheless.
- thefalcon 10y agoThere are a lot of givens and provisos to make the Monty Hall problem work[1], but in the end if you stick with your door you have a 1/3 chance of winning and if you switch you have a 2/3 chance of winning. [1]Monty must always open a non-winning door based on his insider knowledge and always give you the chance to switch, and of course the prize has to always remain behind its original door.
- dwringer 10y agoAhh. of course... funny how even after learning the problem multiple times I could still forget the correct answer and manage to have the wrong intuition about it :) Ah, to be a pigeon.
- vacri 10y agoThe way this was made clear to me was to use 100 doors instead of 3. Hall opens 98 doors when you make your initial guess. It's much clearer to see how information is added to the system with this many doors.