3 ms·

They do, actually. But them having nukes seems to be not much of a problem to China. If China wanted them to not have nukes, they wouldn't have.

nl 10y ago
Speaking in absolutes ("If China wanted them to not have nukes, they wouldn't have") is usually a mistake in geopolitics. China currently won't accept a unified Korea under South Korean rule (which they view as a US proxy). China also doesn't want a destabilized North Korea on its border. But it is likely that many outside China and the Koreas view China's influence as a lot more than it is. China had Kim Jong Un half-brother under their protection as a way of providing a credible threat of threatening regime change. That isn't an option anymore. I'd note this quote from a well-sourced FT article from last year: Beijing has often talked up its influence over its recalcitrant neighbour in its discussions with Washington, but when Pyongyang claimed to have tested a hydrogen bomb this year, Beijing had no idea it was coming, according to several people with knowledge of the matter. and this: It may seem ludicrous to outsiders, but several close observers of North Korea told the FT that, given the choice, Mr Kim would prefer an alliance with America, the far-off superpower, than China, the ancient oppressor and emerging superpower. https://www.ft.com/content/551bb080-1c3c-11e6-a7bc-ee846770ec15 https://www.ft.com/content/551bb080-1c3c-11e6-a7bc-ee846770e...
- ptaipale 10y ago
  Of course it is not so absolute, China is not directly controlling NK, but NK's existence in its current form is ultimately dependent on China. Yes, China has cooled down the relationship recently.
- squozzer 10y ago
  We have a similar view on NK's raison d'etre. I think neither China nor SK want to be neighbors, and NK makes for a perfect buffer state, with the exception of the nuclear (and other WMDs, hypothetically) wrinkle.

nl 10y ago

Speaking in absolutes ("If China wanted them to not have nukes, they wouldn't have") is usually a mistake in geopolitics. China currently won't accept a unified Korea under South Korean rule (which they view as a US proxy). China also doesn't want a destabilized North Korea on its border. But it is likely that many outside China and the Koreas view China's influence as a lot more than it is. China had Kim Jong Un half-brother under their protection as a way of providing a credible threat of threatening regime change. That isn't an option anymore. I'd note this quote from a well-sourced FT article from last year: Beijing has often talked up its influence over its recalcitrant neighbour in its discussions with Washington, but when Pyongyang claimed to have tested a hydrogen bomb this year, Beijing had no idea it was coming, according to several people with knowledge of the matter. and this: It may seem ludicrous to outsiders, but several close observers of North Korea told the FT that, given the choice, Mr Kim would prefer an alliance with America, the far-off superpower, than China, the ancient oppressor and emerging superpower. https://www.ft.com/content/551bb080-1c3c-11e6-a7bc-ee846770ec15 https://www.ft.com/content/551bb080-1c3c-11e6-a7bc-ee846770e...

ptaipale 10y ago
Of course it is not so absolute, China is not directly controlling NK, but NK's existence in its current form is ultimately dependent on China. Yes, China has cooled down the relationship recently.
squozzer 10y ago
We have a similar view on NK's raison d'etre. I think neither China nor SK want to be neighbors, and NK makes for a perfect buffer state, with the exception of the nuclear (and other WMDs, hypothetically) wrinkle.