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The toronto bubble has begun spilling outwards to much of southern ontario as toronto homeowners cash out and move to the smaller cities. Here in Kitchener-Wat
by theluketaylor 10y ago
The toronto bubble has begun spilling outwards to much of southern ontario as toronto homeowners cash out and move to the smaller cities. Here in Kitchener-Waterloo about 1.5 hrs from toronto house prices leapt 20-30% in the last year, primarily though all cash deals far above asking or assessed value. People flush with toronto cash are over the moon about spending so little on a house (even though it's still an insane figure divorced from reality). And they don't care what shape it's in since they since have more than enough cash leftover to gut the house and redo it.
Foreign money being injected into the process isn't helping, but I think the real problem in Toronto is unbelievably low interest rates and easy access to mortgages. Families are being approved for loans of such absurd proportions that everyone who has entered the real estate market in the last 10 years is house poor. Even small interest rate increases will make payments unaffordable and the whole teetering mess will come down.
Governments have exactly zero incentive to do anything about it, since greater property values means more revenue without the mess of a tax increase. The Ontario land transfer tax isn't high enough to stop anyone from speculating, but it's plenty to cash in on the situation.
- branchless 10y agoIt's weird, former UK colonies don't usually have a problem with land speculation, artificial scarcity and money laundering.
- ska 10y agobut I think the real problem in Toronto is unbelievably low interest rates and easy access to mortgages. This really is key. There was no 2008 housing collapse in Canada, but the larger economics pushed interest rates down hard towards zero. Think of it as housing prices rising to capture most of the cheap money available on loan. If we see a significant and quick increase in prime rates it could see a real bloodbath develop.