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The probability of making a correct prediction is only 50/50 if both outcomes are equally likely. Flipping a coin, for example. The probability that one product
by chaosmachine 16y ago
The probability of making a correct prediction is only 50/50 if both outcomes are equally likely. Flipping a coin, for example. The probability that one product will reduce demand for another is essentially unknowable. That said, it's possible to make an educated guess, and based on Apple's track record, it was an easy prediction to make. Mostly, I was just surprised that others disagreed.
- jacquesm 16y agoTo me it was a toss-up at the time, and I'm still not sure about the longer term. I'm beginning to change my opinion on it being a fad though, I've seen some real-world uses that would be hard to duplicate with other devices. But my netbook has absolutely no competition from tablet devices (yet), it is far more useful to me.