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> 3) I believe that there are some managers that are much better than other managers for at least short times. There are always managers who outperform the mar
by jfim 10y ago
> 3) I believe that there are some managers that are much better than other managers for at least short times.
There are always managers who outperform the market, if you look backwards. The problem is whether they're able to repeat their performance moving forwards or if it was due to pure luck.
- wtvanhest 10y agoRight. So the question is, can it be predicted. Im not confident I can, but there may be people that know more than I.
- SirLJ 10y agoI think you should look into the trend following concept, I do believe trends can be predicted and with proper risk management money can be made...
- wtvanhest 10y agoThere are people who believe that "technical analysis" works. I believe in semi efficient markets and do not believe technical analysis works, especially at scale. I think that quantitative analysis can work in rare casis and generate alpha, but i do not believe that i can predict those cases or generate that alpha myself.
- SirLJ 10y agoTechnical analysis is a bit of a voodoo for me as well, but quantitative analysis works indeed, you just need to spend the time and work on it (as with any other skill in life)
- wtvanhest 10y agoIt does until it doesnt. There are very few quant funds that have figured out how to navigate a rapidly changing economic environment. The problem with quant is that it is backward looking. When the market changes most quantitative funds do not have a good method of accounting for the change. They do not properly account for conditioning information and they end up completely hammered. I am confident that there are people who have at least partially figured out how to invest this way, but i believe it is very, very few. Like less than 10 funds/people on earth.