4 ms·

This is what I predicted back when it was launched, and I got downvoted :) http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1081479 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1081

• jacquesm 16y ago
  So, did you buy Apple stock ? Predicting the future is easy, the question is which of the various predictions is the right one, for every 'apple ipad will kill netbooks' prediction there was an opposite 'netbooks will sell in spite of ipad' prediction. Consistently being able to predict the future would be very impressive, on a one-off basis it is expected to happen about half the time in cases like this. That said, the downvotes were entirely inappropriate.
  • chaosmachine 16y ago
    The probability of making a correct prediction is only 50/50 if both outcomes are equally likely. Flipping a coin, for example. The probability that one product will reduce demand for another is essentially unknowable. That said, it's possible to make an educated guess, and based on Apple's track record, it was an easy prediction to make. Mostly, I was just surprised that others disagreed.
    • jacquesm 16y ago
      To me it was a toss-up at the time, and I'm still not sure about the longer term. I'm beginning to change my opinion on it being a fad though, I've seen some real-world uses that would be hard to duplicate with other devices. But my netbook has absolutely no competition from tablet devices (yet), it is far more useful to me.
• megablast 16y ago
  I think it is still too early to tell.