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I don't get the constant hype around self driving cars. Sure - they will be revolutionary when they get here - but the reality is they are years and years away

I don't get the constant hype around self driving cars. Sure - they will be revolutionary when they get here - but the reality is they are years and years away at best. We have autopilots for planes, that can effectively take off, fly, and land a plane. We've had that technology for quite a while. So why is not common place for planes, at least cargo planes with no passengers? Surely companies like UPS, FedEx etc that have a large fleet of cargo planes that fly around the US and the world would have significant cost savings? Why do we feel a car is easier to autopilot than a plane? And when the car autopilot technology does get here - why does Uber feel it will benefit them more than Lyft? As soon as it is available - you'll just have Uber style copy cats with "on demand" vehicles? What benefit does Uber have at that point?

stagbeetle 10y ago
> I don't get the constant hype around self driving cars. Sure - they will be revolutionary when they get here - but the reality is they are years and years away at best. There's a mad dash going on to be first to market on driverless cars. The basic driverless car is already being tested. The only things that need to be done are major debugging and lobbying. ETA: within half a decade if lobbying goes through. > We have autopilots for planes, that can effectively take off, fly, and land a plane. We've had that technology for quite a while. This is erroneous and irrelevant. > So why is not common place for planes, at least cargo planes with no passengers? Surely companies like UPS, FedEx etc that have a large fleet of cargo planes that fly around the US and the world would have significant cost savings? Planes are significantly harder to pilot than cars. If nothing else, look at the differences between a pilot's license and a driver's. Perhaps driverless cars will pave the way for pilotless planes, but not until safety can be guaranteed. No one wants another 9/11. > Why do we feel a car is easier to autopilot than a plane? There are more necessary controls and procedures in a plane than a car. > As soon as it is available - you'll just have Uber style copy cats with "on demand" vehicles? If you're talking about one-offs, then probably not. The reason Uber copycats are failing right now is because of app-population and broadness of coverage. Small biz can't populate their own apps with large competitors still in the picture. Include that with any licensing fees, barrier to entries, etc. it's highly unlikely. Perhaps if a ride-sharing-app sourcer is made that uses Uber and Lyft APIs, while giving one-offs a chance to be mixed in, we might have a nice free market. > What benefit does Uber have at that point? A practically free way to get even more cash.
- dreamcompiler 10y ago
  > Planes are significantly harder to pilot than cars. Not true. Planes have more degrees of freedom than cars, which slightly increases the cognitive load on a pilot vs. a driver. But overall, the cognitive load on drivers is significantly higher because planes don't have to worry about hitting anything (except the ground). If you drive your car on the Bonneville Salt Flats and you have the whole place to yourself, the cognitive load of driving a car is easy, and slightly less than the CL of piloting a plane. Building an autopilot for such a car would be easy. But that's not even remotely what real driving is like, and it's why building an autopilot for cars is significantly more difficult than building one for a plane.
JimmyAustin 10y ago
There are a lot more cars sold (82.8 million in 2014), then planes sold (2331 in 2014), so the cost of the autopilot is distributed over a much larger userbase. Not to mention that a plane crash is a much, much bigger disaster then a car crash, and that the salary of the pilot is only a small component of the cost of a UPS/Fedex flight, compared to the cost of the driver for Uber. As for Uber benefitting more then Lyft, it comes down to who gets them on the road in scale first. If Uber is the one who creates the software behind the cars, they dont have to share. Of course the risk is that the car manufacturers will create their own network (Tesla has already indicated this is what they will do).
aianus 10y ago
The cost of paying pilots is a rounding error compared to the plane, the fuel, the landing fees, and all of the other costs of a UPS cargo flight. It's not worth the regulatory hassle to get rid of them. In contrast, the cost of paying the Uber driver is more than all the other costs of Uber combined and would truly be a game-changer for their business.

stagbeetle 10y ago

> I don't get the constant hype around self driving cars. Sure - they will be revolutionary when they get here - but the reality is they are years and years away at best. There's a mad dash going on to be first to market on driverless cars. The basic driverless car is already being tested. The only things that need to be done are major debugging and lobbying. ETA: within half a decade if lobbying goes through. > We have autopilots for planes, that can effectively take off, fly, and land a plane. We've had that technology for quite a while. This is erroneous and irrelevant. > So why is not common place for planes, at least cargo planes with no passengers? Surely companies like UPS, FedEx etc that have a large fleet of cargo planes that fly around the US and the world would have significant cost savings? Planes are significantly harder to pilot than cars. If nothing else, look at the differences between a pilot's license and a driver's. Perhaps driverless cars will pave the way for pilotless planes, but not until safety can be guaranteed. No one wants another 9/11. > Why do we feel a car is easier to autopilot than a plane? There are more necessary controls and procedures in a plane than a car. > As soon as it is available - you'll just have Uber style copy cats with "on demand" vehicles? If you're talking about one-offs, then probably not. The reason Uber copycats are failing right now is because of app-population and broadness of coverage. Small biz can't populate their own apps with large competitors still in the picture. Include that with any licensing fees, barrier to entries, etc. it's highly unlikely. Perhaps if a ride-sharing-app sourcer is made that uses Uber and Lyft APIs, while giving one-offs a chance to be mixed in, we might have a nice free market. > What benefit does Uber have at that point? A practically free way to get even more cash.

dreamcompiler 10y ago
> Planes are significantly harder to pilot than cars. Not true. Planes have more degrees of freedom than cars, which slightly increases the cognitive load on a pilot vs. a driver. But overall, the cognitive load on drivers is significantly higher because planes don't have to worry about hitting anything (except the ground). If you drive your car on the Bonneville Salt Flats and you have the whole place to yourself, the cognitive load of driving a car is easy, and slightly less than the CL of piloting a plane. Building an autopilot for such a car would be easy. But that's not even remotely what real driving is like, and it's why building an autopilot for cars is significantly more difficult than building one for a plane.

JimmyAustin 10y ago

There are a lot more cars sold (82.8 million in 2014), then planes sold (2331 in 2014), so the cost of the autopilot is distributed over a much larger userbase. Not to mention that a plane crash is a much, much bigger disaster then a car crash, and that the salary of the pilot is only a small component of the cost of a UPS/Fedex flight, compared to the cost of the driver for Uber. As for Uber benefitting more then Lyft, it comes down to who gets them on the road in scale first. If Uber is the one who creates the software behind the cars, they dont have to share. Of course the risk is that the car manufacturers will create their own network (Tesla has already indicated this is what they will do).

aianus 10y ago

The cost of paying pilots is a rounding error compared to the plane, the fuel, the landing fees, and all of the other costs of a UPS cargo flight. It's not worth the regulatory hassle to get rid of them. In contrast, the cost of paying the Uber driver is more than all the other costs of Uber combined and would truly be a game-changer for their business.