5 ms·

So I had some doubts about the numbers at first, but a rough quick calculation 12,000 / (1.3 billion (people) * .5 (age 25-54)) ≈ 0.002% of the available popula

by dvcc 10y ago

So I had some doubts about the numbers at first, but a rough quick calculation 12,000 / (1.3 billion (people) * .5 (age 25-54)) ≈ 0.002% of the available population a day creating a startup (1 in every 50,000) which does not seem too far-fetched, but still seems a bit high to be honest.

da02 10y ago
I agree. Even if the number is too high, I wonder about the failure rate.
contingencies 10y ago
I probably only know a few hundred people here, and there are multiple people starting businesses every year. 1 in 50,000 per day = 1 in ~136 per year. That sounds about right, perhaps even low.
- da02 10y ago
  What do they use as investment? Personal savings, loans, VC?
  - contingencies 10y ago
    It depends upon the business. Startup costs are low here, and some businesses can be started and validated without registration or paperwork. Where formalization is a requirement, agents can register companies as cheaply as a couple of hundred USD, including a registered address. At the low end people use personal savings and family loans. At a slightly larger level friends tend to group together to reach capital requirements. Banks do loan but that's not as easy as it once was. There are government payouts available for specific sectors or achievements (eg. if patents are registered). At the higher end there is strong VC availability right now due to a combination of a relative crisis of faith (ie. no longer "it can never lose money!") in real estate, which was formerly the medium to long term investment traditionally considered most accessibly performant, and increased controls on cross-border capital flight.
- credit_guy 10y ago
  I would think on average a startup starts with more than one person.
kitschshrine 10y ago
it's a lie, much like the government's made up 7% gdp growth. "China's liaoning province admitted that it inflated GDP figures from 2011 to 2014" https://qz.com/887709/chinas-liaoning-province-admitted-that-it-inflated-gdp-figures-from-2011-to-2014/ https://qz.com/887709/chinas-liaoning-province-admitted-that...
- mrslave 10y ago
  And the US government saying there's no inflation, and the recovery is real - just a little slow. ;-)
- golergka 10y ago
  Now, this I have been wondering for a long time. Chinese authorities, especially on a local level, aren't exactly known for their honesty and high moral standards. At the same time, they have a lot of incentives to over-report one particular metric: population. So, when people are talking about 1,5 billion Chinese - have these figures have been independently confirmed, or just taken straight from the government?
  - TheSpiceIsLife 10y ago
    Genuinely curious, what are the incentives to over report population?
    - ch4ck 10y ago
      Subsidies?
    - golergka 10y ago
      Doesn't it determine budget distribution from the central authorities?
  - idra 10y ago
    If anything, the population is underreported. The 2010 census claims it to be around 1.3 billion. But it is widely accepted as a fact that a lot of people in the countryside weren't included in the census because they are "illegal" additional children born in defiance of the one-child policy, and were simply hidden in the basement during the census, as they are hidden whenever any government check is happening. Those children have no rights, and according to the state, don't exist. They can't go to school, get an official job, etc. They are born to do physical work on the fields and support their parents into their old age.
gentro 10y ago
The documentary is about fintech innovation driving funds to SMEs. Their examples are a kiwi producer, a fish farm, and and a steel welding company. What they probably mean is that 12,000 businesses are started in China every day, not necessarily all tech related.
- edblarney 10y ago
  Yes, that's it. And a 'business' can also be a small contractor, a restaurant, or a hot-dog stand. It's difficult to firmly characterize the difference between such business, but it's probably not fair to refer to every registered business as a 'startup'.
  - webmaven 10y ago
    They are startups. It's just that the use of the term has shifted a bit. What we commonly refer to as "startups" today used to be called "high-growth-startups" (or -ventures, or -businesses) not so very long ago, and the unqualified noun referred to any new business. This is actually important, as, for example, the Lean Startup methodology is applicable to almost any new venture that has to deal with significant uncertainty, regardless of whether it is a high-growth venture, an SME such as a VAR, or non-tech lifestyle businesses.
    - edblarney 10y ago
      That the lean startup methodology might in some ways apply to other businesses, does not make them startups. A single hot-dog stand will not do something that will change the economy, create 10K jobs, attract investment, R&D etc..
      - webmaven 10y ago
        > A single hot-dog stand will not do something that will change the economy, create 10K jobs, attract investment, R&D etc. Well, you never know (McDonald's was once a small new company). But that was exactly what I was trying to say: High-growth companies with those sort of ambitions are not the only kind of startup. ALL new ventures are startups, even if they are not intended to grow much, and including quite a few that aren't even necessarily businesses at all.

by dvcc 10y ago

da02 10y ago

I agree. Even if the number is too high, I wonder about the failure rate.

contingencies 10y ago

I probably only know a few hundred people here, and there are multiple people starting businesses every year. 1 in 50,000 per day = 1 in ~136 per year. That sounds about right, perhaps even low.

da02 10y ago
What do they use as investment? Personal savings, loans, VC?
- contingencies 10y ago
  It depends upon the business. Startup costs are low here, and some businesses can be started and validated without registration or paperwork. Where formalization is a requirement, agents can register companies as cheaply as a couple of hundred USD, including a registered address. At the low end people use personal savings and family loans. At a slightly larger level friends tend to group together to reach capital requirements. Banks do loan but that's not as easy as it once was. There are government payouts available for specific sectors or achievements (eg. if patents are registered). At the higher end there is strong VC availability right now due to a combination of a relative crisis of faith (ie. no longer "it can never lose money!") in real estate, which was formerly the medium to long term investment traditionally considered most accessibly performant, and increased controls on cross-border capital flight.
credit_guy 10y ago
I would think on average a startup starts with more than one person.

kitschshrine 10y ago

it's a lie, much like the government's made up 7% gdp growth. "China's liaoning province admitted that it inflated GDP figures from 2011 to 2014" https://qz.com/887709/chinas-liaoning-province-admitted-that-it-inflated-gdp-figures-from-2011-to-2014/ https://qz.com/887709/chinas-liaoning-province-admitted-that...

mrslave 10y ago
And the US government saying there's no inflation, and the recovery is real - just a little slow. ;-)
golergka 10y ago
Now, this I have been wondering for a long time. Chinese authorities, especially on a local level, aren't exactly known for their honesty and high moral standards. At the same time, they have a lot of incentives to over-report one particular metric: population. So, when people are talking about 1,5 billion Chinese - have these figures have been independently confirmed, or just taken straight from the government?
- TheSpiceIsLife 10y ago
  Genuinely curious, what are the incentives to over report population?
  - ch4ck 10y ago
    Subsidies?
  - golergka 10y ago
    Doesn't it determine budget distribution from the central authorities?
- idra 10y ago
  If anything, the population is underreported. The 2010 census claims it to be around 1.3 billion. But it is widely accepted as a fact that a lot of people in the countryside weren't included in the census because they are "illegal" additional children born in defiance of the one-child policy, and were simply hidden in the basement during the census, as they are hidden whenever any government check is happening. Those children have no rights, and according to the state, don't exist. They can't go to school, get an official job, etc. They are born to do physical work on the fields and support their parents into their old age.

gentro 10y ago

The documentary is about fintech innovation driving funds to SMEs. Their examples are a kiwi producer, a fish farm, and and a steel welding company. What they probably mean is that 12,000 businesses are started in China every day, not necessarily all tech related.

edblarney 10y ago
Yes, that's it. And a 'business' can also be a small contractor, a restaurant, or a hot-dog stand. It's difficult to firmly characterize the difference between such business, but it's probably not fair to refer to every registered business as a 'startup'.
- webmaven 10y ago
  They are startups. It's just that the use of the term has shifted a bit. What we commonly refer to as "startups" today used to be called "high-growth-startups" (or -ventures, or -businesses) not so very long ago, and the unqualified noun referred to any new business. This is actually important, as, for example, the Lean Startup methodology is applicable to almost any new venture that has to deal with significant uncertainty, regardless of whether it is a high-growth venture, an SME such as a VAR, or non-tech lifestyle businesses.
  - edblarney 10y ago
    That the lean startup methodology might in some ways apply to other businesses, does not make them startups. A single hot-dog stand will not do something that will change the economy, create 10K jobs, attract investment, R&D etc..
    - webmaven 10y ago
      > A single hot-dog stand will not do something that will change the economy, create 10K jobs, attract investment, R&D etc. Well, you never know (McDonald's was once a small new company). But that was exactly what I was trying to say: High-growth companies with those sort of ambitions are not the only kind of startup. ALL new ventures are startups, even if they are not intended to grow much, and including quite a few that aren't even necessarily businesses at all.