3 ms·

Wait, what? The problem is that the facts themselves have a left-wing bias. Crime has fallen over decades, and deadly violence has not changed for a decade (htt

by stenl 10y ago

Wait, what? The problem is that the facts themselves have a left-wing bias. Crime has fallen over decades, and deadly violence has not changed for a decade (http://www.bra.se/bra/brott-och-statistik/mord-och-drap.html http://www.bra.se/bra/brott-och-statistik/mord-och-drap.html). Real humans experience anecdotes, but it's the job of the media to report the facts. A (large) minority prefers the anecdotes but that doesn't invalidate the facts. That this breeds mistrust is obviously a problem (maybe THE problem of our era) but the solution can't be to have the media report what your "real humans" want to hear, instead of the facts.

johansch 10y ago
Hej, Sten. People here in Sweden are quite attuned to both general crime rates as well as the particular factors behind those rates. We are all happy that crime has fallen. You seem to be against it falling further? People in Sweden want the crime rates reported separately for: a) "sorta native Swedes" (people whose families have lived here many hundred years) b) "new Swedes" (e.g. people who arrived last year from Somalia) It is a well-accepted opinion that the people in category b) are grossly (by a factor of 10 or more) over-represented in crime stats. The authority you linked to has famously denied creating fresher stats than their 2005 report on origin vs crime frequency report - simply by saying "it's not needed". This is right. Sweden hasn't extracted and published crime stats based on the perps' origins simply because the results would be inconvenient.
- stenl 10y ago
  I'm all for less crime, and for crime stats to be reported accurately. But come on, this is Hacker News, we don't do "well-accepted opinion". Find the facts, report them honestly and then we can have a discussion. Truth is, crime has fallen everywhere for decades and we don't really know why. Maybe globalization? The banning of lead in gasoline? That's a real mystery worth solving.
  - johansch 10y ago
    So you support having BRÅ redo their stats on crimes per origin in light of the new immigration since 2005? For any non-swedes who may be interested enough to follow this: BRÅ is the "Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention". The are tasked with doing research on crime and how to prevent it. Meanwhile, this particular authorithy actually published new stats recently. For example: Over the past three years 1.7% of the population of Sweden reported they were subject to sexual crimes. During the period 2005-2012 this number was relatively stable at around 1%. So we are talking about a 70% increase in just a few years. The most obvious thing that changed during these three years? Massive, historically unsurpassed immigration levels from Africa/The Middle-East. https://www.bra.se/bra/brott-och-statistik/valdtakt-och-sexualbrott.html https://www.bra.se/bra/brott-och-statistik/valdtakt-och-sexu... (The graph there is quite telling.)
    - stenl 10y ago
      So now correlation is causation? I'm definitely in favour of more high-quality research into the causes of crime and its relationship with immigration, social factors, gender etc. Again, we need facts, which can only be won by serious, honest research, not glib generalizations.
      - johansch 10y ago
        a) Yeah, I would say that it is highly likely that the incredibly dramatic demographic change the past three years has been quite relevant for the 70% increase in sex crime victimization during the same three years. Of course, if your're an academic type person you can chose to ignore what you're seeing with your own eyes. Just carry on. Bonus link: http://www.nature.com/articles/srep39589 http://www.nature.com/articles/srep39589 b) How about you actually stating that BRÅ should re-do their crime stats based on immigration status etc? Not that it matters one bit in the grand scale of things, but since you seem to be escaping the issue I would like to see you say yes or no.
      - stenl 10y ago
        Yes. Of course, they should do it properly and not stop at that but look at all plausible factors. For example, there's a very common chromosomal abberration that leads to a ten-fold increase in the violent crime rate (or more), yet this is hardly discussed at all.
DaUR 10y ago
The media "sticking to the facts" (laughable) isn't what causes mistrust. Them treating whole swaths of public debates as taboo, and ignoring some sets of inconvenient facts, is. If there's no problem, why the taboo? Violent crime has fallen over decades, but has increased since the refugee crisis. This manipulation of facts by the media is what causes distrust, and is their own doing. Check out the journalism Tim Pool (Vice Media) is doing, right now, over in Sweden. He's reported on the Middle East, on the ground, in the past. He said he would investigate if there was any link between crime and refugee migration in Sweden. Before he even left for that country, he got harassed on Twitter by many on the left including journalists. Once there, after some continued trying to create a scandal out of nothing, several of the Swedes he had set up interviews with outright cancelled, and more agreed to speak but not on the record, meaning he can't publish any of what they said. If there's no problem there, why are people being terrorized into silence? If there's no problem there, why groups of men with masks threaten Tim and his co-reporter in the streets, and why did the Swedish police force them to leave the area, instead of defending them? (check his Twitter)
- stenl 10y ago
  First, to claim that there's a taboo on discussing these issues is ridiculous on its face when it's discussed pretty much every day in every newspaper. You just don't like when people disagree with you that crime is linked to immigration. That link is far from proven. In fact, in the US it's pretty clear that crime does not increase when refugees arrive; if anything it goes down: http://www.citylab.com/crime/2017/02/refugee-resettlement-v-crime/516471/ http://www.citylab.com/crime/2017/02/refugee-resettlement-v-... I'm not aware of any similar research in Sweden, which is a pity. I watched Tim Pool's reporting on how media "skews crine statistics" and thought it was pretty good. I would just add that while it's true that some types of crime have increased in the last year or two, we'll have to wait a few more years to know if that's a trend or a natural fluctuation. Homework assignment for tomorrow: what was the effect on violent crime rates in Sweden of the mass arrival of predominantly muslim refugees from the Balkans in the 1990s?
  - DaUR 10y ago
    "The smart way to keep people passive and obedient is to strictly limit the spectrum of acceptable opinion, but allow very lively debate within that spectrum." > In fact, in the US it's pretty clear that crime does not increase when refugees arrive; if anything it goes down: http://www.citylab.com/crime/2017/02/refugee-resettlement-v-.. http://www.citylab.com/crime/2017/02/refugee-resettlement-v-.... The US isn't Sweden. > I'm not aware of any similar research in Sweden, which is a pity. They did it in 2005. Didn't do it again since. You can guess why. > Homework assignment for tomorrow For you: learn respect (and read the site guidelines).

by stenl 10y ago

johansch 10y ago

Hej, Sten. People here in Sweden are quite attuned to both general crime rates as well as the particular factors behind those rates. We are all happy that crime has fallen. You seem to be against it falling further? People in Sweden want the crime rates reported separately for: a) "sorta native Swedes" (people whose families have lived here many hundred years) b) "new Swedes" (e.g. people who arrived last year from Somalia) It is a well-accepted opinion that the people in category b) are grossly (by a factor of 10 or more) over-represented in crime stats. The authority you linked to has famously denied creating fresher stats than their 2005 report on origin vs crime frequency report - simply by saying "it's not needed". This is right. Sweden hasn't extracted and published crime stats based on the perps' origins simply because the results would be inconvenient.

stenl 10y ago
I'm all for less crime, and for crime stats to be reported accurately. But come on, this is Hacker News, we don't do "well-accepted opinion". Find the facts, report them honestly and then we can have a discussion. Truth is, crime has fallen everywhere for decades and we don't really know why. Maybe globalization? The banning of lead in gasoline? That's a real mystery worth solving.
- johansch 10y ago
  So you support having BRÅ redo their stats on crimes per origin in light of the new immigration since 2005? For any non-swedes who may be interested enough to follow this: BRÅ is the "Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention". The are tasked with doing research on crime and how to prevent it. Meanwhile, this particular authorithy actually published new stats recently. For example: Over the past three years 1.7% of the population of Sweden reported they were subject to sexual crimes. During the period 2005-2012 this number was relatively stable at around 1%. So we are talking about a 70% increase in just a few years. The most obvious thing that changed during these three years? Massive, historically unsurpassed immigration levels from Africa/The Middle-East. https://www.bra.se/bra/brott-och-statistik/valdtakt-och-sexualbrott.html https://www.bra.se/bra/brott-och-statistik/valdtakt-och-sexu... (The graph there is quite telling.)
  - stenl 10y ago
    So now correlation is causation? I'm definitely in favour of more high-quality research into the causes of crime and its relationship with immigration, social factors, gender etc. Again, we need facts, which can only be won by serious, honest research, not glib generalizations.
    - johansch 10y ago
      a) Yeah, I would say that it is highly likely that the incredibly dramatic demographic change the past three years has been quite relevant for the 70% increase in sex crime victimization during the same three years. Of course, if your're an academic type person you can chose to ignore what you're seeing with your own eyes. Just carry on. Bonus link: http://www.nature.com/articles/srep39589 http://www.nature.com/articles/srep39589 b) How about you actually stating that BRÅ should re-do their crime stats based on immigration status etc? Not that it matters one bit in the grand scale of things, but since you seem to be escaping the issue I would like to see you say yes or no.
    - stenl 10y ago
      Yes. Of course, they should do it properly and not stop at that but look at all plausible factors. For example, there's a very common chromosomal abberration that leads to a ten-fold increase in the violent crime rate (or more), yet this is hardly discussed at all.

DaUR 10y ago

The media "sticking to the facts" (laughable) isn't what causes mistrust. Them treating whole swaths of public debates as taboo, and ignoring some sets of inconvenient facts, is. If there's no problem, why the taboo? Violent crime has fallen over decades, but has increased since the refugee crisis. This manipulation of facts by the media is what causes distrust, and is their own doing. Check out the journalism Tim Pool (Vice Media) is doing, right now, over in Sweden. He's reported on the Middle East, on the ground, in the past. He said he would investigate if there was any link between crime and refugee migration in Sweden. Before he even left for that country, he got harassed on Twitter by many on the left including journalists. Once there, after some continued trying to create a scandal out of nothing, several of the Swedes he had set up interviews with outright cancelled, and more agreed to speak but not on the record, meaning he can't publish any of what they said. If there's no problem there, why are people being terrorized into silence? If there's no problem there, why groups of men with masks threaten Tim and his co-reporter in the streets, and why did the Swedish police force them to leave the area, instead of defending them? (check his Twitter)

stenl 10y ago
First, to claim that there's a taboo on discussing these issues is ridiculous on its face when it's discussed pretty much every day in every newspaper. You just don't like when people disagree with you that crime is linked to immigration. That link is far from proven. In fact, in the US it's pretty clear that crime does not increase when refugees arrive; if anything it goes down: http://www.citylab.com/crime/2017/02/refugee-resettlement-v-crime/516471/ http://www.citylab.com/crime/2017/02/refugee-resettlement-v-... I'm not aware of any similar research in Sweden, which is a pity. I watched Tim Pool's reporting on how media "skews crine statistics" and thought it was pretty good. I would just add that while it's true that some types of crime have increased in the last year or two, we'll have to wait a few more years to know if that's a trend or a natural fluctuation. Homework assignment for tomorrow: what was the effect on violent crime rates in Sweden of the mass arrival of predominantly muslim refugees from the Balkans in the 1990s?
- DaUR 10y ago
  "The smart way to keep people passive and obedient is to strictly limit the spectrum of acceptable opinion, but allow very lively debate within that spectrum." > In fact, in the US it's pretty clear that crime does not increase when refugees arrive; if anything it goes down: http://www.citylab.com/crime/2017/02/refugee-resettlement-v-.. http://www.citylab.com/crime/2017/02/refugee-resettlement-v-.... The US isn't Sweden. > I'm not aware of any similar research in Sweden, which is a pity. They did it in 2005. Didn't do it again since. You can guess why. > Homework assignment for tomorrow For you: learn respect (and read the site guidelines).