3 ms·

You claim that the scenario you describe is happening "NOW". Could you provide a citation for that claim? Or even better, are people betting money that it is tr

by abtinf 10y ago

You claim that the scenario you describe is happening "NOW". Could you provide a citation for that claim? Or even better, are people betting money that it is true, as might be represented with a greater-than-inflation rise in premiums for flood insurance, home owners insurance, or umbrella insurance in the affected geographies?

leeoniya 10y ago
http://channel.nationalgeographic.com/before-the-flood/videos/feeling-the-effects-of-climate-change/ http://channel.nationalgeographic.com/before-the-flood/video...
aaron-lebo 10y ago
Hurricanes? New Orleans will never recover. That same season saw a couple other storms that were just as strong but luckily missed worst case scenarios. I wouldn't be shocked if cat five hurricanes became pretty common in a couple of decades due to warmer waters, and one or two of those a year would devastate coastal economies. But I'm not a weatherman...
- Udik 10y ago
  And these statements are based on what? There have been some major earthquakes around the world in the last 20 years, are they also caused by global warming? Do you project an increase in them in the next 20 years? Here's a page with good, updated information about global warming and hurricanes: https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/ https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/
  - adt2bt 10y ago
    Goodness, that was a ridiculously condescending comment considering you could have just provided the NOAA link and had a positive discussion instead.
    - cr1895 10y ago
      >Goodness, that was a ridiculously condescending comment I read no condescension in it.
  - dredmorbius 10y ago
    Melting icecaps over Greenland and Antarctica will almost certainly result in seismic, and potentially volcanic activity, as the continental plate rises, having been relieved of kilometers worth of ice cap. Though the timescale will likely be on the order of decades or centuries, not 20 years. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/03/080314-warming-quakes_2.html http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/03/080314-warmi...
  - lithos 10y ago
    Actually Wisconsin isn't by any fault lines and occasionally gets an earth quake (very small). From the glacier recession of the last ice age. Turns out glaciers are heavy and bedrock is still uncompressing. So we do have proof of weather changes causing earthquakes. Though I doubt anyone has data or models that would be useful for this tangent. At least for oceanic fault lines, which could be affected by ocean rise.
  - AnsemWise 10y ago
    Earthquakes have no known cause so doesn't support your point well
theseadroid 10y ago
https://climate.nasa.gov/effects/ https://climate.nasa.gov/effects/ >The intensity, frequency and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. The relative contributions of human and natural causes to these increases are still uncertain. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.
- Udik 10y ago
  Bad information. From the noaa website [0], a more scientific assessment reports: "It is premature to conclude that human activities–and particularly greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming–have already had a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricane or global tropical cyclone activity." So no detectable increase (even statistically, which I consider to be a much weaker requirement than actual subjective experience). [0] https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/ https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/
  - pdm55 10y ago
    Scientific article examining the downward trend in Australia's cyclone numbers : http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl2.502/full http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl2.502/full Long‐term changes in Australian tropical cyclone numbers "Numerous data quality checks were used in this study, as noted above, and there are no known systematic errors in the observations or analyses that would be likely to produce the decreasing trend in TC #s examined here. This suggests the possibility that the downward trend may be associated with changes in environmental conditions. Studies such as Emanuel (2005) indicate that the changes in various different environmental conditions that are occurring due to anthropogenic influences are having an influence on TC activity in some regions of the world. In the Australian region, one possible physical explanation for a decreasing trend in TC #s could be a potential long-term shift in environmental conditions towards a more El Niño-like state, given that fewer TCs tend to occur in the Australian region during El Niño than La Niña conditions. Although the NIN and SOI data used here did not show a significant long-term trend, some studies suggest the possibility of a shift towards more El Niño-like conditions, relating to a possible weakening of the Walker circulation due to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations (Vecchi et al., 2006; Power and Smith, 2007; Huang et al., 2013; DiNezio et al., 2013). However, it is also noted that considerable uncertainty exists in observed changes to the Walker circulation based on reanalyses (Compo et al., 2011)."
RandyRanderson 10y ago
As you likely know, if you have any insurance and have looked into your coverage in any depth, insurance covers a lot less than one expects. Also when an insured event happens typically the insurer will amend the policy (without changing the premiums, of course) to exclude that eventuality (also typically excluding your "neighbours" as well). Further insurers will typically require say homeowners in a flood-prone zone to take additional precautions periodically. So far example maintaining barrier walls, etc. Therefore insurance premiums or losses may be difficult to compare year to year. Certainly insurances companies have factored global warming into their models and are changing their rates accordingly. To not do so would be grounds for shareholder lawsuits I should think. There are as many climate deniers in insurance companies as there are atheists in foxholes. :>
pg314 10y ago
Insurance companies are taking climate change seriously, for sure. I found [1] after some quick googling. [1] http://evanmills.lbl.gov/pubs/pdf/climate-action-insurance.pdf http://evanmills.lbl.gov/pubs/pdf/climate-action-insurance.p...
fjarlq 10y ago
One indicator is the trend of increased tidal flooding on the US east coast over the past few decades: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/09/04/science/global-warming-increases-nuisance-flooding.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/09/04/science/globa...

by abtinf 10y ago

leeoniya 10y ago

http://channel.nationalgeographic.com/before-the-flood/videos/feeling-the-effects-of-climate-change/ http://channel.nationalgeographic.com/before-the-flood/video...

aaron-lebo 10y ago

Hurricanes? New Orleans will never recover. That same season saw a couple other storms that were just as strong but luckily missed worst case scenarios. I wouldn't be shocked if cat five hurricanes became pretty common in a couple of decades due to warmer waters, and one or two of those a year would devastate coastal economies. But I'm not a weatherman...

Udik 10y ago
And these statements are based on what? There have been some major earthquakes around the world in the last 20 years, are they also caused by global warming? Do you project an increase in them in the next 20 years? Here's a page with good, updated information about global warming and hurricanes: https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/ https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/
- adt2bt 10y ago
  Goodness, that was a ridiculously condescending comment considering you could have just provided the NOAA link and had a positive discussion instead.
  - cr1895 10y ago
    >Goodness, that was a ridiculously condescending comment I read no condescension in it.
- dredmorbius 10y ago
  Melting icecaps over Greenland and Antarctica will almost certainly result in seismic, and potentially volcanic activity, as the continental plate rises, having been relieved of kilometers worth of ice cap. Though the timescale will likely be on the order of decades or centuries, not 20 years. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/03/080314-warming-quakes_2.html http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/03/080314-warmi...
- lithos 10y ago
  Actually Wisconsin isn't by any fault lines and occasionally gets an earth quake (very small). From the glacier recession of the last ice age. Turns out glaciers are heavy and bedrock is still uncompressing. So we do have proof of weather changes causing earthquakes. Though I doubt anyone has data or models that would be useful for this tangent. At least for oceanic fault lines, which could be affected by ocean rise.
- AnsemWise 10y ago
  Earthquakes have no known cause so doesn't support your point well

theseadroid 10y ago

https://climate.nasa.gov/effects/ https://climate.nasa.gov/effects/ >The intensity, frequency and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. The relative contributions of human and natural causes to these increases are still uncertain. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.

Udik 10y ago
Bad information. From the noaa website [0], a more scientific assessment reports: "It is premature to conclude that human activities–and particularly greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming–have already had a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricane or global tropical cyclone activity." So no detectable increase (even statistically, which I consider to be a much weaker requirement than actual subjective experience). [0] https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/ https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/
- pdm55 10y ago
  Scientific article examining the downward trend in Australia's cyclone numbers : http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl2.502/full http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl2.502/full Long‐term changes in Australian tropical cyclone numbers "Numerous data quality checks were used in this study, as noted above, and there are no known systematic errors in the observations or analyses that would be likely to produce the decreasing trend in TC #s examined here. This suggests the possibility that the downward trend may be associated with changes in environmental conditions. Studies such as Emanuel (2005) indicate that the changes in various different environmental conditions that are occurring due to anthropogenic influences are having an influence on TC activity in some regions of the world. In the Australian region, one possible physical explanation for a decreasing trend in TC #s could be a potential long-term shift in environmental conditions towards a more El Niño-like state, given that fewer TCs tend to occur in the Australian region during El Niño than La Niña conditions. Although the NIN and SOI data used here did not show a significant long-term trend, some studies suggest the possibility of a shift towards more El Niño-like conditions, relating to a possible weakening of the Walker circulation due to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations (Vecchi et al., 2006; Power and Smith, 2007; Huang et al., 2013; DiNezio et al., 2013). However, it is also noted that considerable uncertainty exists in observed changes to the Walker circulation based on reanalyses (Compo et al., 2011)."

RandyRanderson 10y ago

As you likely know, if you have any insurance and have looked into your coverage in any depth, insurance covers a lot less than one expects. Also when an insured event happens typically the insurer will amend the policy (without changing the premiums, of course) to exclude that eventuality (also typically excluding your "neighbours" as well). Further insurers will typically require say homeowners in a flood-prone zone to take additional precautions periodically. So far example maintaining barrier walls, etc. Therefore insurance premiums or losses may be difficult to compare year to year. Certainly insurances companies have factored global warming into their models and are changing their rates accordingly. To not do so would be grounds for shareholder lawsuits I should think. There are as many climate deniers in insurance companies as there are atheists in foxholes. :>

pg314 10y ago

Insurance companies are taking climate change seriously, for sure. I found [1] after some quick googling. [1] http://evanmills.lbl.gov/pubs/pdf/climate-action-insurance.pdf http://evanmills.lbl.gov/pubs/pdf/climate-action-insurance.p...

fjarlq 10y ago

One indicator is the trend of increased tidal flooding on the US east coast over the past few decades: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/09/04/science/global-warming-increases-nuisance-flooding.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/09/04/science/globa...