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5-8C would lead to mass starvation. Our agricultural systems are built on extremely well adapted crop varieties for the regions they grow in. The lead-in time

by gravelc 10y ago

5-8C would lead to mass starvation. Our agricultural systems are built on extremely well adapted crop varieties for the regions they grow in. The lead-in time for generation of new crop varieties is very long (even with genetic modification). Rapid catastrophic climate change, with major associated changes in pest and disease prevelence, would simply overwhelm our ability to generate adapted crop varieties to maintain yield. Add to that more extreme weather events. Then on top of all this, investment on agricultural science has been declining for years, precisely at the time when plant breeders should be focusing on what is happening 20-30 years from now.

drpgq 10y ago
Don't we pretty much already have a massive oversupply of calories?
- gravelc 10y ago
  In a perfect world where food distribution isn't affected by things like spoilage, lack of transport infrastructure, politics, trade barriers, diversion of food crops to biofuels, monopolies, war etc. etc., we may have an oversupply. In reality, it's not even close, given that yield increases in staple crops like wheat are beginning to flat-line, and population growth marches ever onwards (and millions are lifted out of poverty to the middle class). The Green Revolution was through picking all the low-hanging fruit - hybrid crops and synthetic fertilizers. Increasing yield to match demand is already looking like an issue without the effect of catastrophic climate change. Other issues occurring in the next 20-30 years include encroachment of cities into prime arable land, land degradation, and increased cost/reduced availability of phosphorous fertilizers. It's a massive issue that barely registers on the public conscience, and we may hit the perfect storm soon, particularly if a new nasty rust or plant virus pops up on the scene at the same time.

by gravelc 10y ago

drpgq 10y ago

Don't we pretty much already have a massive oversupply of calories?

gravelc 10y ago
In a perfect world where food distribution isn't affected by things like spoilage, lack of transport infrastructure, politics, trade barriers, diversion of food crops to biofuels, monopolies, war etc. etc., we may have an oversupply. In reality, it's not even close, given that yield increases in staple crops like wheat are beginning to flat-line, and population growth marches ever onwards (and millions are lifted out of poverty to the middle class). The Green Revolution was through picking all the low-hanging fruit - hybrid crops and synthetic fertilizers. Increasing yield to match demand is already looking like an issue without the effect of catastrophic climate change. Other issues occurring in the next 20-30 years include encroachment of cities into prime arable land, land degradation, and increased cost/reduced availability of phosphorous fertilizers. It's a massive issue that barely registers on the public conscience, and we may hit the perfect storm soon, particularly if a new nasty rust or plant virus pops up on the scene at the same time.