3 ms·

Over the past years(as a new grad) I thought that I would've killed to work at Snapchat, Fitbit, Uber, or Twitter. Now, I wouldn't touch any of those companies

Over the past years(as a new grad) I thought that I would've killed to work at Snapchat, Fitbit, Uber, or Twitter. Now, I wouldn't touch any of those companies with a 50 foot pole. I've grown extremely cynical about startups and the extreme hype that surrounds them. That being said, at Internapalooza this year, the longest line there was for SnapChat and every young person seemed enamored with them. And I remember a time where everyone was screaming that Facebook would fail because of it's lack of profit or that Twitter was the next Facebook/Google. This is all a long way of saying that no one knows what the hell they are talking about when they discuss these companies. Whether that's posters on HN, financial talking heads, or even successful people in Silicon Valley. If you have some advantage on the market, and can predict the correct valuation of Snapchat, then: 1. Put your money where your mouth is. Buy or short the IPO. 2. It's probably wise to not share your take as it relinquishes the advantage you think you have on the market. 3. Hope you stay solvent longer than the market stays irrational. Just remember, these same "experts" said that no one needed DropBox when they had wGet.

umeshunni 10y ago
> long way of saying that no one knows what the hell they are talking about when they discuss these companies And in some cases, they have vested interests in the success or failure of these companies.
MorePowerToYou 10y ago
None of those companies are start-ups. Companies that are truly start-ups have little to zero revenue and little to zero name recognition. The companies you mentioned have passed the start-up phase but have yet to reach the Goliath phase (Amazon, Google, etc). They all have/had escape velocity and are/were on the upwards trajectory.
- oculusthrift 10y ago
  Well yeah, but they were at least more of a "startup" a few years ago when I wanted to work there. My main point was: look how they turned out despite the hype or industry experts predictions.
warcher 10y ago
I definitely don't get snapchat. Too old, not playing. That said, if you don't understand a company, man, you should stay far, far away from investing in it. And I don't use DropBox. I use Google Drive. For free. Where's that Dropbox IPO at anyways?
- scurvy 10y ago
  This is good advice. Peter Lynch puts it best (and actually, he was misquoted about the mall story 25+years ago): https://www.wsj.com/articles/peter-lynch-25-years-later-its-not-just-invest-in-what-you-know-1449459844 https://www.wsj.com/articles/peter-lynch-25-years-later-its-... tl;dr you better really know what you're investing in. If you don't know, don't invest even if you miss out on the next "big thing".
- Grazester 10y ago
  I downloaded Snapchat when they first busted onto the scene to see what it was all about. I was constantly being told by a close friend to download it so that she could snap with me. I thought it was a poor means of communicating and though the snaps were just noise that I didnt need. I jumped onto Facebook's IPO but snapchat I definitely wouldn't touch.
  - nojvek 10y ago
    I use snapchat every single day. Not a Facebook user anymore. They've got a really stronghold on 18-25 year old market. Facebook sees snap as a threat and they literally ripped snapchat in whatsapp "status". I can't say that it will beat Facebook but I'm willing to bet it will be more valuable than twitter. I will buy if it's share price is not too hyped.
AJ007 10y ago
It is advantageous to be in a business everyone else thinks isn't worth being in. Whether it is because the business model is terrible (they make all of their money on ads) or the app can't possible have users (it looks horrible and I can't figure it out), the end result is the same - less competition and more breathing room to have a shot at succeeding. I'm not buying at the IPO but I'll be keeping a close eye on the stock and how Spectacles works out (waiting for a pair now.)
saretired 10y ago
I have no way of predicting Snap’s future, but I am certain that tomorrow, the founders and VCs will take hundreds of millions off the table through share sales, the investment bankers will earn fat fees, ditto the deal lawyers, some people will buy in hoping for a quick buck on a first-day big pop, and founders and VCs all around will be looking for increased pre-IPO valuations. That’s what this show is, and the rest is just speculation.

umeshunni 10y ago

> long way of saying that no one knows what the hell they are talking about when they discuss these companies And in some cases, they have vested interests in the success or failure of these companies.

MorePowerToYou 10y ago

None of those companies are start-ups. Companies that are truly start-ups have little to zero revenue and little to zero name recognition. The companies you mentioned have passed the start-up phase but have yet to reach the Goliath phase (Amazon, Google, etc). They all have/had escape velocity and are/were on the upwards trajectory.

oculusthrift 10y ago
Well yeah, but they were at least more of a "startup" a few years ago when I wanted to work there. My main point was: look how they turned out despite the hype or industry experts predictions.

warcher 10y ago

I definitely don't get snapchat. Too old, not playing. That said, if you don't understand a company, man, you should stay far, far away from investing in it. And I don't use DropBox. I use Google Drive. For free. Where's that Dropbox IPO at anyways?

scurvy 10y ago
This is good advice. Peter Lynch puts it best (and actually, he was misquoted about the mall story 25+years ago): https://www.wsj.com/articles/peter-lynch-25-years-later-its-not-just-invest-in-what-you-know-1449459844 https://www.wsj.com/articles/peter-lynch-25-years-later-its-... tl;dr you better really know what you're investing in. If you don't know, don't invest even if you miss out on the next "big thing".
Grazester 10y ago
I downloaded Snapchat when they first busted onto the scene to see what it was all about. I was constantly being told by a close friend to download it so that she could snap with me. I thought it was a poor means of communicating and though the snaps were just noise that I didnt need. I jumped onto Facebook's IPO but snapchat I definitely wouldn't touch.
- nojvek 10y ago
  I use snapchat every single day. Not a Facebook user anymore. They've got a really stronghold on 18-25 year old market. Facebook sees snap as a threat and they literally ripped snapchat in whatsapp "status". I can't say that it will beat Facebook but I'm willing to bet it will be more valuable than twitter. I will buy if it's share price is not too hyped.

AJ007 10y ago

It is advantageous to be in a business everyone else thinks isn't worth being in. Whether it is because the business model is terrible (they make all of their money on ads) or the app can't possible have users (it looks horrible and I can't figure it out), the end result is the same - less competition and more breathing room to have a shot at succeeding. I'm not buying at the IPO but I'll be keeping a close eye on the stock and how Spectacles works out (waiting for a pair now.)

saretired 10y ago

I have no way of predicting Snap’s future, but I am certain that tomorrow, the founders and VCs will take hundreds of millions off the table through share sales, the investment bankers will earn fat fees, ditto the deal lawyers, some people will buy in hoping for a quick buck on a first-day big pop, and founders and VCs all around will be looking for increased pre-IPO valuations. That’s what this show is, and the rest is just speculation.