5 ms·

I think when people say is Snap a Twitter or Facebook they are wondering if it will +350% or -60% in the first few years after IPO.

hkmurakami 10y ago
Or user growth.
pavlov 10y ago
Maybe it will be neither? I could well see Snap sitting at roughly its IPO price or slightly below two years from now. That's the risk of a high-priced initial offering -- the success will need to be extraordinary to drive the stock still higher.
iLoch 10y ago
Snap's data has real value, like Facebook's. For most of their users, they have a large portion of their phone's contacts (whether you opt in or not is irrelevant due to your contacts opting into this + a network effect.) They also have media preferences based on what articles you're watching/reading. They also know who you're most interested in (who's stories you're watching most, and who you send/receive snaps from the most) and what their interests are, so they can potentially infer interests from that too, even if you don't read articles. They have location data turned on for most of their users thanks to geo filters, and if they've been "good" data miners, they're sending your facial mapping home when you do a face filter effect. I'd be surprised if Snap doesn't have the most comprehensive faces database out there with all the angles they get from selfies (though they may not have the most unique faces.) Oh yeah, and they also have the perceived privacy that Facebook doesn't have. Deleting messages doesn't actually delete them, but it just feels better when they're gone, so people are more candid on Snapchat. Not to mention they've also done an excellent job monetizing their features thus far, with very little intrusion that I've noticed as a user. You get the occasional ad when you're looking through stories, but most of the money is coming from things like sponsored content and geo filters, which users don't complain about.
- pdog 10y ago
  There's a lot of misinformation in this reply. > ...they're sending your facial mapping home when you do a face filter effect... Lenses are generated on the device. They're not uploaded to Snapchat servers. > Deleting messages doesn't actually delete them... From the support site: "Snapchat servers are designed to automatically delete Snaps after they've been viewed by all recipients." https://support.snapchat.com/en-US/a/when-are-snaps-chats-deleted https://support.snapchat.com/en-US/a/when-are-snaps-chats-de...
  - iLoch 10y ago
    > Lenses are generated on the device. They're not uploaded to Snapchat servers. Context is very important when you're quoting people: "... and if they've been "good" data miners..." And regardless of whether or not a filter is generated on device, facial data is being used, and so I'm weary that it could be sent to a server. If it's not, fine, but that's subject to change. > From the support site: "Snapchat servers are designed to automatically delete Snaps after they've been viewed by all recipients." So when authorities get involved, I'm sure Snap says "sorry, can't do anything for you"?
    - smogcutter 10y ago
      > So when authorities get involved, I'm sure Snap says "sorry, can't do anything for you"? Why not? Obviously it's nonfree software so neither of us really know, but the alternative is that they're simply lying. Maybe they are, but that sounds like a ticking time bomb that would destroy them when it gets out. And it would absolutely get out, especially if they try to monetize it as an above poster suggested.
      - iLoch 10y ago
        I wouldn't consider it a ticking time bomb. They provide a (false) guarantee to the end user that other users won't be able to capture whatever you sent beyond the time given for them to view it. (This is false because anyone can take a picture of their phone's screen.) Users would understand the very reasonable difference between users having general access to this "expired" data vs. the police. Most people should expect that the police have special privileges in this case, and I don't think there'd be any backlash if this became broader knowledge. Their promise to their users is to provide them with the secrecy of a "secret note", not government proof secure encrypted messaging.

hkmurakami 10y ago

Or user growth.

pavlov 10y ago

Maybe it will be neither? I could well see Snap sitting at roughly its IPO price or slightly below two years from now. That's the risk of a high-priced initial offering -- the success will need to be extraordinary to drive the stock still higher.

iLoch 10y ago

Snap's data has real value, like Facebook's. For most of their users, they have a large portion of their phone's contacts (whether you opt in or not is irrelevant due to your contacts opting into this + a network effect.) They also have media preferences based on what articles you're watching/reading. They also know who you're most interested in (who's stories you're watching most, and who you send/receive snaps from the most) and what their interests are, so they can potentially infer interests from that too, even if you don't read articles. They have location data turned on for most of their users thanks to geo filters, and if they've been "good" data miners, they're sending your facial mapping home when you do a face filter effect. I'd be surprised if Snap doesn't have the most comprehensive faces database out there with all the angles they get from selfies (though they may not have the most unique faces.) Oh yeah, and they also have the perceived privacy that Facebook doesn't have. Deleting messages doesn't actually delete them, but it just feels better when they're gone, so people are more candid on Snapchat. Not to mention they've also done an excellent job monetizing their features thus far, with very little intrusion that I've noticed as a user. You get the occasional ad when you're looking through stories, but most of the money is coming from things like sponsored content and geo filters, which users don't complain about.

pdog 10y ago
There's a lot of misinformation in this reply. > ...they're sending your facial mapping home when you do a face filter effect... Lenses are generated on the device. They're not uploaded to Snapchat servers. > Deleting messages doesn't actually delete them... From the support site: "Snapchat servers are designed to automatically delete Snaps after they've been viewed by all recipients." https://support.snapchat.com/en-US/a/when-are-snaps-chats-deleted https://support.snapchat.com/en-US/a/when-are-snaps-chats-de...
- iLoch 10y ago
  > Lenses are generated on the device. They're not uploaded to Snapchat servers. Context is very important when you're quoting people: "... and if they've been "good" data miners..." And regardless of whether or not a filter is generated on device, facial data is being used, and so I'm weary that it could be sent to a server. If it's not, fine, but that's subject to change. > From the support site: "Snapchat servers are designed to automatically delete Snaps after they've been viewed by all recipients." So when authorities get involved, I'm sure Snap says "sorry, can't do anything for you"?
  - smogcutter 10y ago
    > So when authorities get involved, I'm sure Snap says "sorry, can't do anything for you"? Why not? Obviously it's nonfree software so neither of us really know, but the alternative is that they're simply lying. Maybe they are, but that sounds like a ticking time bomb that would destroy them when it gets out. And it would absolutely get out, especially if they try to monetize it as an above poster suggested.
    - iLoch 10y ago
      I wouldn't consider it a ticking time bomb. They provide a (false) guarantee to the end user that other users won't be able to capture whatever you sent beyond the time given for them to view it. (This is false because anyone can take a picture of their phone's screen.) Users would understand the very reasonable difference between users having general access to this "expired" data vs. the police. Most people should expect that the police have special privileges in this case, and I don't think there'd be any backlash if this became broader knowledge. Their promise to their users is to provide them with the secrecy of a "secret note", not government proof secure encrypted messaging.