You don't have to be all that suspicious a person to think that a 40 year old man, who has demonstrated a repeated pattern of behavior over his life, in a situa

You don't have to be all that suspicious a person to think that a 40 year old man, who has demonstrated a repeated pattern of behavior over his life, in a situation where his job is on the line and a crisis manager is writing letters like this, should probably be assigned a prior greater than 0.95 of, well, lying.