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The reason this issue is so hotly contested is because there is no way (probably) for the fossil fuel industry to solve this problem, other than to cease existi

The reason this issue is so hotly contested is because there is no way (probably) for the fossil fuel industry to solve this problem, other than to cease existing, or completely convert themselves to another business. Yes I am aware of geo-engineering ideas and sequestering ideas, but nobody has a practical plan that can really work. If it was as simple as using a new refrigerant or putting catalytic converters on cars, the industry would have done that, as they did with carbon monoxide and ozone layer issues. This problem's solution is much much much more painful. I think our only hope is for solar/wind/nuclear to get so good nobody wants fossil fuels any more. That isn't easy either, but it could happen, and we should be trying really really hard.

leephillips 10y ago
"I think our only hope is for solar/wind/nuclear to get so good nobody wants fossil fuels any more." We are at this stage now or approaching it: https://robertscribbler.com/2016/12/19/solar-now-produces-a-better-energy-return-on-investment-than-oil/ https://robertscribbler.com/2016/12/19/solar-now-produces-a-...
mikeash 10y ago
The oil companies ought to have been pushing for solar/wind/nuclear to get that good more quickly. If they knew there was a problem and knew that the solution required making their business obsolete, then the proper choice is to make themselves obsolete rather than waiting for others to do it for them. But, nope, let's screw over future generations because that's too hard.
- menacingly 10y ago
  This is exactly the kind of haughty idealism that leads to nothing ever getting done on contentious issues
  - mikeash 10y ago
    How is "figure out a way to transform your business so you don't wreck the planet" haughty idealism, and how does suggesting that as the correct approach result in nothing ever getting done?
    - erikpukinskis 10y ago
      > How is "figure out a way to transform your business so you don't wreck the planet" haughty idealism Because it's like asking a tree to figure out how to become a meadow of flowers. Sure, the meadow could just as easily exist in the same place, but the mechanisms by which the tree became a tree can't be used to turn it into a field of flowers. Certain kinds of change can only come by displacing what's there with something new. > and how does suggesting that as the correct approach result in nothing ever getting done? Because the people you're assigning to do it have no natural motivation to do it, and are completely psychically cut off from the information signals that could guide someone through the successful foundation of a clean energy company. You've got the right approach, you're just looking to the wrong people to get it done.
      - mikeash 10y ago
        Some companies manage to disrupt themselves rather than waiting for upstarts to do it for them. It's not impossible. It may well be quite difficult, but I don't see why we can't criticize companies for failing to do difficult things.
        alexvoda 10y ago
        We can criticize them for failing to do/failing to attempt to do, but we should not expect them to do it. Companies will naturally be opposed to developing something that threatens their main revenue stream. Expecting them to do it results in nothing getting done.
        mikeash 10y ago
        I don't get that last sentence. How do my expectations influence what they do?
  - coderzach 10y ago
    This is exactly the kind of defeatist attitude that leads to nothing ever getting done on contentious issues
    - menacingly 10y ago
      Well, here we have a great historical example of someone in the real world not deciding to work against their own interests, despite our impotent insistence that they do so. Since countless other examples of that happening are a few seconds' google away, maybe it doesn't work?
      - mikeash 10y ago
        My point is that disrupting yourself before others can disrupt you is working towards your own interests. Most companies don't have what it takes to pull it off, but that doesn't change the fact that they should be doing it.
      - Gravityloss 10y ago
        For example, the premier piston engine maker Pratt & Whitney started developing jet engines, with a late start compared to the Brits and the Germans, or even the steam turbine maker General Electric, but they nevertheless became very successful in it. I think what was needed for the drastic change was, first, the threat of competition, and second, applicability of at least some portion of current skills and assets. Could oil companies or coal power plant operators work outside fossil fuels? I guess oil companies could still do solar or wind projects because they have project management, engineering and offshore knowhow etc, often in challenging countries. They could also develop alternative fuel refining and distribution. They also have good investor relations. I think BP at least attempted something like this. Coal plant operators could operate many other kind of power plants too.
- ProAm 10y ago
  It's not too hard hard, it's just not profitable. Everything comes down to money in the end.
- ro_sharp 10y ago
  That would only be rational (profit maximising) behaviour on the company's part if they had an expectation that the negative externalities associated with climate change would eventually be priced in. The speed they decide to transition would then be in line with that expectation. Funnily enough those externalities have generally still not been priced in, and it looks like these companies correctly believed that would be the case.

leephillips 10y ago

"I think our only hope is for solar/wind/nuclear to get so good nobody wants fossil fuels any more." We are at this stage now or approaching it: https://robertscribbler.com/2016/12/19/solar-now-produces-a-better-energy-return-on-investment-than-oil/ https://robertscribbler.com/2016/12/19/solar-now-produces-a-...

mikeash 10y ago

The oil companies ought to have been pushing for solar/wind/nuclear to get that good more quickly. If they knew there was a problem and knew that the solution required making their business obsolete, then the proper choice is to make themselves obsolete rather than waiting for others to do it for them. But, nope, let's screw over future generations because that's too hard.

menacingly 10y ago
This is exactly the kind of haughty idealism that leads to nothing ever getting done on contentious issues
- mikeash 10y ago
  How is "figure out a way to transform your business so you don't wreck the planet" haughty idealism, and how does suggesting that as the correct approach result in nothing ever getting done?
  - erikpukinskis 10y ago
    > How is "figure out a way to transform your business so you don't wreck the planet" haughty idealism Because it's like asking a tree to figure out how to become a meadow of flowers. Sure, the meadow could just as easily exist in the same place, but the mechanisms by which the tree became a tree can't be used to turn it into a field of flowers. Certain kinds of change can only come by displacing what's there with something new. > and how does suggesting that as the correct approach result in nothing ever getting done? Because the people you're assigning to do it have no natural motivation to do it, and are completely psychically cut off from the information signals that could guide someone through the successful foundation of a clean energy company. You've got the right approach, you're just looking to the wrong people to get it done.
    - mikeash 10y ago
      Some companies manage to disrupt themselves rather than waiting for upstarts to do it for them. It's not impossible. It may well be quite difficult, but I don't see why we can't criticize companies for failing to do difficult things.
      - alexvoda 10y ago
        We can criticize them for failing to do/failing to attempt to do, but we should not expect them to do it. Companies will naturally be opposed to developing something that threatens their main revenue stream. Expecting them to do it results in nothing getting done.
        mikeash 10y ago
        I don't get that last sentence. How do my expectations influence what they do?
- coderzach 10y ago
  This is exactly the kind of defeatist attitude that leads to nothing ever getting done on contentious issues
  - menacingly 10y ago
    Well, here we have a great historical example of someone in the real world not deciding to work against their own interests, despite our impotent insistence that they do so. Since countless other examples of that happening are a few seconds' google away, maybe it doesn't work?
    - mikeash 10y ago
      My point is that disrupting yourself before others can disrupt you is working towards your own interests. Most companies don't have what it takes to pull it off, but that doesn't change the fact that they should be doing it.
    - Gravityloss 10y ago
      For example, the premier piston engine maker Pratt & Whitney started developing jet engines, with a late start compared to the Brits and the Germans, or even the steam turbine maker General Electric, but they nevertheless became very successful in it. I think what was needed for the drastic change was, first, the threat of competition, and second, applicability of at least some portion of current skills and assets. Could oil companies or coal power plant operators work outside fossil fuels? I guess oil companies could still do solar or wind projects because they have project management, engineering and offshore knowhow etc, often in challenging countries. They could also develop alternative fuel refining and distribution. They also have good investor relations. I think BP at least attempted something like this. Coal plant operators could operate many other kind of power plants too.
ProAm 10y ago
It's not too hard hard, it's just not profitable. Everything comes down to money in the end.
ro_sharp 10y ago
That would only be rational (profit maximising) behaviour on the company's part if they had an expectation that the negative externalities associated with climate change would eventually be priced in. The speed they decide to transition would then be in line with that expectation. Funnily enough those externalities have generally still not been priced in, and it looks like these companies correctly believed that would be the case.