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85% on a yes/no decision sounds more impressive than it actually is. The majority of startups fail so the baseline is somewhere above 50%. What would be more in
by shalmanese 16y ago
85% on a yes/no decision sounds more impressive than it actually is. The majority of startups fail so the baseline is somewhere above 50%. What would be more interesting is if it could calculate expected value at better than chance.
- acgourley 16y agoRight, simply predicting 'no' in every case could be right 80% of the time if you believe someone people's number on startup success. On that note, I wish we had a better data set of attempted startups and general agreement on when a startup 'starts.'