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> even universal use of IVF would not deliver more than maybe 4.5 IQ points That still doubles the number of people in your population with a 130+ IQ. Assuming

• gwern 10y ago
  Sure (I include a table of the consequences on the tail for various scenarios), but consider that the Chinese population is already more than twice the size of the US population and available measurements suggest it may have a higher starting mean as well, but that has not had a huge impact. Why would another doubling be expected to? (The US could probably easily double its 130+ numbers if it wanted to just by changing immigration policies.) At the very least, it can't be expected to have the impact of anything like an IES/synthesis scenario where the gains would be anywhere upwards of +100 points.
  • defen 10y ago
    Oh yeah, a gain of +100 points is just insane and it would be difficult to predict what that society would even be like. I was just trying to suggest that +4.5 to the mean might also have potentially big effects. As for why China isn't farther ahead - IQ isn't everything. They modernized pretty late in the game, and operated under a profoundly stupid economic system for a good part of the 20th century. I believe that their current government is pretty corrupt, but I'm far from an expert.