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The shark one is misleading, I agree. Out here in California, most people never go more than ankle deep in the water if that. Those who do surf usually only d
by geebee 10y ago
The shark one is misleading, I agree.
Out here in California, most people never go more than ankle deep in the water if that. Those who do surf usually only do it occasionally, in very un-sharky places.
How many people really surf regularly in sharky places like Ano Nuevo, Russian River Mouth, Bolinas, and so forth? My guess is that you should probably be dividing the number of shark attacks by something measurable in the thousands, not 36 million.
Whatever that number is, it's still damn unlikely. But still, if you're in the habit of surfing in known shark feeding grounds while dead seals are floating around, I don't think shark attacks divided by the total population of California is a good reflection of your risk.
- xapata 10y agoThere's a wonderful (and heartbreaking) essay, "The Median is not the Message" by Stephen Jay Gould about cancer survival statistics. It expresses some of those points beautifully. https://www.edwardtufte.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg?msg_id=0003ms https://www.edwardtufte.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg?msg_id=...
- averagewall 10y agoIf you know more information, you can always change your estimates. Even if you're a surfer in a "sharky" place, what percentage of those are there at the same time as a shark? What percentage of those are chased by a shark? Bitten by a shark? If you're not one of the few that actually get bitten, then you're safe from death.
- kls 10y agoAgreed as a spearfisher (and a spearfisher in a sharky place), I am well aware that an overwhelming majority of attacks happen to spearfishers or related activities (abalone divers). It is not uncommon for a freediver with some sort of food to have an encounter with a shark and most people that have been doing it for a while have several stories. It comes with the territory but those who do it accept the risks. If you factored out spearfishers, abalone divers and surfers the numbers would look drastically different. The reality is it is very, very rare for some random person in the water to experience an unprovoked attack.