4 ms·

i'd say the next 5-10 or even 20 years certainly falls under the 'forseeable future'

by gr3yh47 10y ago

frgtpsswrdlame 10y ago
>i'd say the next 5-10 And I'm gonna say you're delusional. The thing I'm really curious is about how much of Tesla stock is self-driving hype? I still believe in electric cars. Also will Elon's web of companies come crashing down when progress on the self-driving front starts to falter?
- JumpCrisscross 10y ago
  > will Elon's web of companies come crashing down when progress on the self-driving front starts to falter? Are you confusing Tesla with Uber? Uber needs self-driving cars to justify its valuation. Tesla doesn't. It just needs production volume. If anything, very near-term self-driving cars might be bad for Tesla because it would reduce aggregate demand for cars.
  - frgtpsswrdlame 10y ago
    >Are you confusing Tesla with Uber? No, although I think Uber is in dire straits itself. A lot of laypeople buy Teslas not just because they are electric but because of a general feeling that they "are the future." The self-driving dream goes a long way towards driving this consumer sentiment. If self-driving peters out in the way I suspect it will, Musk/Tesla begin to lose some of their luster. If traditional car brands can bring in affordable electric cars which also look good, what will Musk have left? His image is necessary and part of that image is placed in self-driving.
    - djrogers 10y ago
      > If self-driving peters out in the way I suspect it will I think the current capabilities in 'self driving' are already driving a lot of attention and sales. Even if it 'peters out' in a few years with only refinements on the current abilities, people love the idea of a car that can park itself, come when summoned, handle the drudgery of stop-and-go commute traffic, and predict/prevent some accidents. Those features alone are good enough to make a $35k car very desirable.
    - michaldudek 10y ago
      Problem is none of those traditional car brands are actually doing that. All they do is show off concept cars at $100k+. Maybe a few more realistic ones from VW but they're all planned way beyond 2020. By that time Tesla will be years ahead and at massive production scale.
Drumlin 10y ago
I think counting it in decades rather than years is more realistic. So many major innovations are described as being in the next ten years. If you look at VR, which I think is simple in comparison, you could have experienced it in a high end 90s arcade. It is only now starting to become a mass produced product. In my view, the current self driving cars look like where VR was before they turned the technology into arcade machines.
- ghaff 10y ago
  I'm willing to believe that genuine autopilot on a subset of limited access highways could come sooner. Which would be very nice to have but doesn't. of course, enable any of the use cases that get people all excited. At this point, it seems as if everyone feels they need to play this "right around the corner" one-upmanship game less people think they're late to the party.

i'd say the next 5-10 or even 20 years certainly falls under the 'forseeable future'

by gr3yh47 10y ago

i'd say the next 5-10 or even 20 years certainly falls under the 'forseeable future'

>i'd say the next 5-10 And I'm gonna say you're delusional. The thing I'm really curious is about how much of Tesla stock is self-driving hype? I still believe in electric cars. Also will Elon's web of companies come crashing down when progress on the self-driving front starts to falter?

JumpCrisscross 10y ago
> will Elon's web of companies come crashing down when progress on the self-driving front starts to falter? Are you confusing Tesla with Uber? Uber needs self-driving cars to justify its valuation. Tesla doesn't. It just needs production volume. If anything, very near-term self-driving cars might be bad for Tesla because it would reduce aggregate demand for cars.
- frgtpsswrdlame 10y ago
  >Are you confusing Tesla with Uber? No, although I think Uber is in dire straits itself. A lot of laypeople buy Teslas not just because they are electric but because of a general feeling that they "are the future." The self-driving dream goes a long way towards driving this consumer sentiment. If self-driving peters out in the way I suspect it will, Musk/Tesla begin to lose some of their luster. If traditional car brands can bring in affordable electric cars which also look good, what will Musk have left? His image is necessary and part of that image is placed in self-driving.
  - djrogers 10y ago
    > If self-driving peters out in the way I suspect it will I think the current capabilities in 'self driving' are already driving a lot of attention and sales. Even if it 'peters out' in a few years with only refinements on the current abilities, people love the idea of a car that can park itself, come when summoned, handle the drudgery of stop-and-go commute traffic, and predict/prevent some accidents. Those features alone are good enough to make a $35k car very desirable.
  - michaldudek 10y ago
    Problem is none of those traditional car brands are actually doing that. All they do is show off concept cars at $100k+. Maybe a few more realistic ones from VW but they're all planned way beyond 2020. By that time Tesla will be years ahead and at massive production scale.

Drumlin 10y ago

I think counting it in decades rather than years is more realistic. So many major innovations are described as being in the next ten years. If you look at VR, which I think is simple in comparison, you could have experienced it in a high end 90s arcade. It is only now starting to become a mass produced product. In my view, the current self driving cars look like where VR was before they turned the technology into arcade machines.

ghaff 10y ago
I'm willing to believe that genuine autopilot on a subset of limited access highways could come sooner. Which would be very nice to have but doesn't. of course, enable any of the use cases that get people all excited. At this point, it seems as if everyone feels they need to play this "right around the corner" one-upmanship game less people think they're late to the party.