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Tesla investors are learning a hard lesson that just because a company is cool and makes amazing products, that does not make it a buy at any price. There is a
by hodder 10y ago
Tesla investors are learning a hard lesson that just because a company is cool and makes amazing products, that does not make it a buy at any price. There is almost no way to justify the current valuation and Goldman is simply reiterating that.
I have a really nice coffee mug in front of me right now. Best mug I've ever used. Is it worth 1200 dollars? No.
Price matters.
- mikeash 10y agoWith a market cap of about $40 billion, I don't think they're learning that yet. If the price drops to reflect something vaguely resembling the company's current size, rather than wild dreams of massive growth, then they might be learning that. But the current price is still way high if you just look at the present or even the near future.
- Udik 10y agoI often reflect that if Elon Musk died (god forbid) the shares of Tesla would drop to a fifth or a tenth of their current value in the space of a few hours. It's incredible how much a single person can make the difference.
- sixQuarks 10y agovery true in this case, because Elon is a once-in-a-generation, perhaps even once-in-a-century type of person. On the other hand, if he keeps going at this pace for another 15 years, there is a very good chance that Tesla will be the most valuable company in the world. That's the whole risk/reward situation with Tesla, if he dies or loses his abilities with older age, shit hits the fan, otherwise you got a 20-bagger in your hand if you wait 15 years.
- ygjb-dupe 10y agowow. The hero worship is strong with you. I agree that he has accomplished some pretty cool things, but calling him a "once-in-a-century" or "once-in-a-generation" person ignores all of the other people who have been as or more successful than him in multiple dimensions of success.
- kbenson 10y agoI don't think it's entirely unfair to say he's a "once in a generation" person (once in a century is pushing it), but that has little to do with his actual abilities, and more to do with his perceived abilities. He's got that combination of engineer, businessman and celebrity that people go crazy for. He's the modern Howard Hughes, and people love that. Whether he can deliver on people's expectations or not, he's a rarity. Edit: Whoops, s/fair/unfair/
- sixQuarks 10y agoplease name some of these people who have been as or more successful - and don't go by wealth alone. I'm talking disrupting multiple, huge industries with innovative products.
- MegaButts 10y agoI think Elon has accomplished a lot, but I think you're ignoring the fact that every one of his companies is still surprisingly risky. Tesla might not get another loan and it could go under in a year. SpaceX has fantastic margins, but they still have significant hurdles with failed launches (although this is true of rocketry in general) and navigating a political landscape. Solar City was going under when Elon saved it by combining it with Tesla, a very controversial move. Elon has yet to run a profitable electronic vehicle company. Elon has yet to run a stable alternative to NASA. Elon has yet to ween the world off its oil dependence. He is working towards all of them and it's great! But he hasn't succeeded in disrupting any of them yet, because all of the alternatives still exist and are as healthy as ever.
- sixQuarks 10y agoyou're avoiding the question. Name someone else that has done more impressive things than what Elon has already accomplished.
- brianwawok 10y agoBen Franklin Thomas Edison Ghandi
- selectodude 10y ago>Tesla will be the most valuable company in the world Slow down there a little bit. They're an AI and battery company. Batteries are commodities and there are several other companies that are working on AI.
- sixQuarks 10y agoNice of you to take the quote totally out of context. Why didn't you include the words directly before that: "if he keeps going at this pace for another 15 years, there is a very good chance..."
- selectodude 10y agoBecause that part wasn't relevant. If any company with explosive growth and valuation kept going at that rate for 15 years, they would be the largest company in the world. It's the idea that they'll maintain explosive growth for 15 years selling commodities.
- gordon_freeman 10y agoSo do you mean he is even above Albert Einstein and his achievements thus far are even bigger than the likes of theory of relativity, invention of airplane? ABSURD. Once-in-a-century is going too too far here.
- pseudometa 10y agoBut if I got 400000 preorders for that $1200 mug?
- stagbeetle 10y agoDoesn't guarantee sustainability.
- shanemhansen 10y agoTSLA is up over a 5 year period, a 1 year period, and 25% in the last 3 months alone. As far as I can tell the only people who learned a hard lesson were those who bought in the last week or so. I believe the lesson they learned is: past performance does not guarantee future results.