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Tesla Tanks After Goldman Downgrades to Sell
- jacquesm 10y agoThis is just Goldman trying to get better terms for their loan.
- idiot_stick 10y ago>This is just Goldman trying to get better terms for their loan. In the vaunted halls of Silicon Valley, maybe. But people in the finance world are starting to wonder if this thing can hold up. Others have been wondering for a while.
- HeavenBanned 10y agobatteries + car will always be >>> gas + car which will always be >>> steam + car ...do you see where this is going? There is no other alternative. Gas guzzling days are numbered. The pioneer of batteries+car will be rewarded for scores if not a century or more.
- exhilaration 10y agoI wish it would "tank" a little further so I could buy some shares.
- alexro 10y agoIf you like to risk buy Bitcoin instead. None of the Bitcoin buyers who held on the investment ever lost money.
- thefalcon 10y agoAssuming you had control of your wallet vs Mtgox etc.
- rhino369 10y agoYou can say that about any "investment" currently at an all time high.
- jlgaddis 10y agoI bought $11,000 USD worth of BTC at $7. I sure wish I had held on to it.
- thefalcon 10y agoOut of curiosity, and if you don't mind sharing, why/when did you get out of it?
- M_Grey 10y agoIIRC wasn't there just a debate here on HN about the wisdom of shorting Tesla stock?
- angstrom 10y agoThere's also a fitting debate about blindly follow GS.
- M_Grey 10y agoI can't imagine that anyone would be so foolish as to do that today, even if they had been so inclined years ago.
- eip 10y agoJust sold some TSLA puts for a 130% gain. Not sure if it was wise but don't care.
- idiot_stick 10y agoYeah, the top comment on the last article was some schadenfreude filled piece talking about "shorts losing their shirts". Stock is down almost 10% since then.
- KirinDave 10y agoIt is almost like there is a secondary agenda here. It's difficult to see how anyone arrived at these conclusions.
- hodder 10y agoTesla investors are learning a hard lesson that just because a company is cool and makes amazing products, that does not make it a buy at any price. There is almost no way to justify the current valuation and Goldman is simply reiterating that. I have a really nice coffee mug in front of me right now. Best mug I've ever used. Is it worth 1200 dollars? No. Price matters.
- mikeash 10y agoWith a market cap of about $40 billion, I don't think they're learning that yet. If the price drops to reflect something vaguely resembling the company's current size, rather than wild dreams of massive growth, then they might be learning that. But the current price is still way high if you just look at the present or even the near future.
- Udik 10y agoI often reflect that if Elon Musk died (god forbid) the shares of Tesla would drop to a fifth or a tenth of their current value in the space of a few hours. It's incredible how much a single person can make the difference.
- sixQuarks 10y agovery true in this case, because Elon is a once-in-a-generation, perhaps even once-in-a-century type of person. On the other hand, if he keeps going at this pace for another 15 years, there is a very good chance that Tesla will be the most valuable company in the world. That's the whole risk/reward situation with Tesla, if he dies or loses his abilities with older age, shit hits the fan, otherwise you got a 20-bagger in your hand if you wait 15 years.
- cryptozeus 10y ago5% down != tanks
- trimbo 10y ago11% since earnings.
- tommynicholas 10y ago5% drop after a 30% rally is "tanking"? Tesla stock will always be volatile it's fine. Stock was under $200 a few months ago.
- elmar 10y agoOctober 7, 2016 Elon Musk dumped by Wall St’s Goldman, Morgan now that he really needs them http://www.biznews.com/global-investing/2016/10/07/elon-musk-dumped-goldman-morgan/ http://www.biznews.com/global-investing/2016/10/07/elon-musk...
- mikeash 10y agoYeah, it's a pretty weird headline. The last time TSLA was this low was six whole weeks ago.
- ogezi 10y agoI agree. Tesla stock has had a wild ride over the years but it has generally gone up. BI wrote this article about it http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-year-in-review-again-2017-2 http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-year-in-review-again-20....
- elmar 10y agoAnyone knows the status of these loans? Elon Musk Is Borrowing Another $150 Million From Goldman Sachs To Buy More Tesla Stock (2013) http://www.businessinsider.com.au/elon-musk-borrows-150-million-to-buy-tesla-2013-5 http://www.businessinsider.com.au/elon-musk-borrows-150-mill...
- JumpCrisscross 10y agoTesla went public on 29 June 2010 [1]. Since then, it has traded 1,677 days. It's average (median) movement, from open to close, is -0.01% (-0.09%). There have been 50 days when Tesla stock fell at least 5% and 53 days where Tesla stock rose at least 5%. So about 6% of the time, historically, it's "tanked" or "boomed" by a similar amount. (By coïncidence, the average >=5% movement is +7.452% while the average <=5% movement is -7.458%.) Note: this is not a traditional presentation of volatility. Its point is to narrate, not power trades. --- So what should you be looking at? One, there is heavy bearish sentiment around Tesla, representing about 30% of its float [2]. Short interest ratio "is the ratio of tradable shares being shorted to shares in the market" [3]. Two, Musk's reality-distortion field just faltered. None of Musk's companies have ever been realistic about timelines. But having a Goldman Sachs analyst publicly counter Tesla just a week after "Musk said the firm’s new vehicle is on schedule to arrive in July" is a new level of assertiveness. This is salient given Tesla's short-term need to raise boatloads of money. I'd keep an eye on Musk positioning back-ups to Wall Street through political channels, e.g. low-cost 'infrastructure' or 'domestic manufacturing' financing and/or government contracts, while he repairs his warp field. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.#IPO_and_Model_S https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.#IPO_and_Model_S [2] http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=tsla&submit=Short+Quote™ http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=tsla&submit=Short+Quote™ [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_interest_ratio https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_interest_ratio Disclaimer: this is not investment advice. Please don't be a numpty and trade based on Internet comments.
- HeavenBanned 10y ago>numpty numpty - NOUN; British, informal: A stupid or ineffectual person. ORIGIN 1980s: of Scottish origin, perhaps an alteration of numbskull, with the ending remodelled on the pattern of Humpty Dumpty.
- johan_larson 10y agoI wonder why Bloomberg didn't try to put this drop into perspective, somehow. Surely there are traditional measures of volatility, and they could have presented those. Why didn't they? The simple answer is that bold statements grab more eyeballs, I suppose. But is that all there is to it?
- frgtpsswrdlame 10y agoOnce people realize that the self-driving dream won't be taking place anytime in the foreseeable future, I'd expect another big drop.
- gr3yh47 10y agoi'd say the next 5-10 or even 20 years certainly falls under the 'forseeable future'
- frgtpsswrdlame 10y ago>i'd say the next 5-10 And I'm gonna say you're delusional. The thing I'm really curious is about how much of Tesla stock is self-driving hype? I still believe in electric cars. Also will Elon's web of companies come crashing down when progress on the self-driving front starts to falter?
- JumpCrisscross 10y ago> will Elon's web of companies come crashing down when progress on the self-driving front starts to falter? Are you confusing Tesla with Uber? Uber needs self-driving cars to justify its valuation. Tesla doesn't. It just needs production volume. If anything, very near-term self-driving cars might be bad for Tesla because it would reduce aggregate demand for cars.
- frgtpsswrdlame 10y ago>Are you confusing Tesla with Uber? No, although I think Uber is in dire straits itself. A lot of laypeople buy Teslas not just because they are electric but because of a general feeling that they "are the future." The self-driving dream goes a long way towards driving this consumer sentiment. If self-driving peters out in the way I suspect it will, Musk/Tesla begin to lose some of their luster. If traditional car brands can bring in affordable electric cars which also look good, what will Musk have left? His image is necessary and part of that image is placed in self-driving.
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- OliverJones 10y agoWall Street really doesn't like companies doing things with a promised payoff beyond the present fiscal year. That's what they're doing at TSLA. Sure, a lot of it ("Gigafactories!!!!!") is ego driven, not economy-of-scale driven. But they will need the manufacturing capacity as electric storage becomes more common. Don't forget, TSLA is an energy company. Their present products have wheels because rich dopes like me will spend money on them, and because there's some low-hanging fruit in transportation energy in this decade (not this fiscal year). But long term their products are going to be as ubiquitous as household electric meters and just as boring. If I had a bunch of shares of TSLA and a kid entering college, I might sell some of them at the present price. But that doesn't make them a bad investment.
- JumpCrisscross 10y ago> Wall Street really doesn't like companies doing things with a promised payoff beyond the present fiscal year The same Wall Street valuing Tesla at $40bn [1]? Tesla is a loss-making company valued at almost 6 times revenues on the promise of profits in many years' time. [1] https://www.google.com/finance?q=tsla&ei=yVy0WNmON8bfsgHYiImAAw https://www.google.com/finance?q=tsla&ei=yVy0WNmON8bfsgHYiIm...
- idiot_stick 10y ago>Don't forget, TSLA is an energy company. Boy are people going to have to do some explaining if Tesla winds down Solar City, which I see as a major possibility. >But long term their products are going to be as ubiquitous as household electric meters and just as boring. I'd love to know how people are so confident that it's going to be Tesla that wins this. This isn't Tesla vs GM, Tesla vs Toyota, Tesla vs Ford; it's Tesla vs Everyone. If you were betting, you would really bet on Tesla vs one of about 15 other, huge companies in pool? That seems insane to me.
- djrogers 10y ago> if Tesla winds down Solar City Why would they wind down a profitable financing arm of the company? Auto makers get a huge chunk of their revenue from financing, as do solar lease companies. Lots of synergy there, and just about zero downside to continuing Solar City operations.
- mjgoeke 10y agoPart of me really wants to read this headline as - "Tesla retaliates with heavy armored vehicles after creditor denounces them to the public"
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- ChicagoDave 10y agoI'm not generally a conspiracy theorist, but Trump is friends with the oil & gas industry, Tesla and the gigafactories are a direct threat to that industry, and GS is embedded deeply in this administration. Tesla is doing what we as a world should be promoting, that is to stop pushing oil & gas exploration and pushing sustainable energies. There is an energy war. Tesla is doing better than anyone expected from a science perspective. There is a lot of money at stake in oil, gas, coal, and electricity (in its current form). I expect this administration to drop the EC subsidies at some point, but retain the O&G exploration subsidies. The Koch brothers are probably somewhere in this mix as well.
- michaldudek 10y agoIt baffles me how all these smart people completely don't get Elon or Tesla. Maybe it's hard to understand for some that money is not the ultimate motivator? I'm pretty sure that Tesla could be a profitable company today if they stopped all investments and just focused on selling amazing Model S (who needs AP2?) (best car ever made in opinion of many reviewers!). But they're a tech company that happens to make cars (among many other things), not a traditional car company. That's why they should be valued at tech company criteria. They're doing what all the tech "unicorns" are doing - burning through cash by investing in stuff that will give them massive advantage in the future. Why profit when you can grow massively? (hello Gigafactory! hello Solar City!) Sure, I can see how this is not a company to invest in during daily trade. But it's not a company that ever said it's in it for the quick buck. 10 years ago it was failing in delivery of Roadster. 5 years ago it was failing in delivery of Model S and 2 years ago it was failing in Model X. If you ask me, I'd love to fail on the scale Elon and Tesla fail. Unless something really really random happens, Tesla is not going down anytime soon. Sure, M3 is risky, Solar City deal might be iffy, but I think some of the smartest people in the world are running this company, they're not gonna flip it. I mean, a chat app aims to be valued at $25bn vs a company that delivered almost 200k feats of engineering in the last 10 years and everyone is laughing at their current valuation of $40bn. What is wrong with the world?
- dragonbonheur 10y agoPeople who work for Goldman aren't that smart - they're just greedy career-diggers who just look for a quick buck. Just google the mountain of lies that was Spinvox.
- exclusiv 10y ago> Maybe it's hard to understand for some that money is not the ultimate motivator? Except that's the whole point of the market. Companies have a fiduciary responsibility to their shareholders. The company has to be motivated by money and growth. Maybe they'll pump out dividends. Maybe they'll take over the world first like Amazon and then pump out tons of cash. Either way - it still always boils down to money. If a company doesn't care about money, they can be taken over. Their stock price can suffer. Going public means you've decided to be scrutinized. For better or worse.
- lutusp 10y agoThis narrative explains why there can be no "winning strategy" in equities investment (apart from investing in an index fund). The widely followed analysts who recommend selling TSLA shares based on what they expect to happen, make their prediction come true by speaking publicly (an "announcement effect") -- compare the rate of change in the stock price when the "experts" aren't offering their advice to the public. It also builds the reputation of the analysts -- the more correct calls they make, the more wise they seem. The more wise they seem, the more the public follows their advice. The more the public follows their advice, the more "correct" calls they seem to have made. The real winners are those who make their moves the day before the experts speak, which is why insider trading is illegal. http://arachnoid.com/equities_myths/ http://arachnoid.com/equities_myths/
- nodesocket 10y agoI wouldn't call it tanking. I'd say correction. Since Dec 2nd, $TSLA has been up over 40%. Today's action brings it down to up 35%. https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=0&chdd=0&chds=1&chdv=0&chvs=Linear&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1488256521671&chddm=22678&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=NASDAQ:TSLA&ntsp=0&ei=B_60WImPCIHRjAH27rbYBA https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=0&chdd=0&chds=1&chdv=0&...