16 ms·

Same-sex marriage linked to decline in teen suicides

207 points by Liriel 10y ago

TazeTSchnitzel 10y ago
Wonder if, by the same token, teen suicides increase in states introducing new anti-LGBT laws. (Probably.)
misja111 10y ago
See also: http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
jawns 10y ago
When I read studies like this, one of the first things I like to do is look around for critiques. On conservative commentary website Stream.org, statistician William M. Briggs (who, take it for what it's worth, opposes same-sex marriage) offers a critique of the study's methodology and conclusion, as well as the conclusion that the study expressly does not make, but that the headlines have made: https://stream.org/no-a-study-did-not-show-that-same-sex-marriage-laws-reduce-teen-suicide-rates/ https://stream.org/no-a-study-did-not-show-that-same-sex-mar... A few interesting snippets from his critique: > A weighted 8.6% to a weighted 8%, they say. This is a 7% reduction, all right, but a minor tweak in the actual weighted number. The numbers are weighted averages across several states and the result of a statistical model called a linear regression. The 0.6 drop is not observed, but is the output from a model. > The numbers within states is anything but straightforward (the authors provide graphs). For instance, some states show reported suicide attempts increasing after gmarriage (New York, Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont, for example). The graphs also indicate a general decline in rates before gmarriage and continuing afterwards (see their Fig. 3). > putting Ebola in the model works equally well with gmarriage to explain the data. So do the disasters of those crashing Malaysian airliners, or the fighting in Ukraine and Crimea. So does the 2014 Winter Olympics! One other point that Briggs makes only indirectly, but bears mentioning, is that measuring the number of self-reported unsuccessful suicide attempts only provides us with part of the picture; we can't make any firm conclusions about what its rise or fall says about suicide prevention unless we also know the number of _successful_ suicide attempts. For instance, it might be the case that some suicide prevention factor reduces the likelihood that any given suicide attempt is successful. Maybe hospitals have gotten better at reducing the mortality rate of intentional overdoses. In such a case, the rate of suicide attempts might remain relatively flat, but the rate of unsuccessful suicide attempts would rise, and the rate of successful suicide attempts would fall.
- libeclipse 10y ago
  Whether or not you agree with same sex marriage (I myself am libertarian) this comment is well thought out and informative. I don't see why it was downvoted.
- thebooktocome 10y ago
  His critique seems rather desperate. Statistical noise is always present, so of course suicide among GSM teens did not uniformly drop. The JAMA study used different years for different states, as same-sex marriage became legal in different states at different times. His criticism about "any event in 2014 explains this drop in suicide" is malformed.
  - jawns 10y ago
    This is a fair point, although it should be noted that 19 states legalized gay marriage in 2014 compared with only 16 states in any of the prior years examined. And 8 of those 16 were in 2013. So, 27 out of 35 states examined legalized same-sex marriage either in 2014 or within one year prior. I would be interested to learn just how much the data from those other 8 states affect the weighted average the authors used to identify the association. By the way, if you look at the accompanying figure 2 and figure 3 in the JAMA article, you will see just how noisy the data is for both Wave 1 and Wave 2 states, as well as the relative lack of post-2014 data points. Honestly, just looking at those two charts should be enough to give you a healthy skepticism about the conclusion, whatever your ideological views.
  - wjnc 10y ago
    Have you looked at the main plots? They're terribly noisy. And because of the difference-in-difference design, a pretty strong covariate for adult suicide (economy / labour participation) is not taken into account. Take perspective of the modeller. What would be the first circle of influence in teen suicide? Probably direct social interactions (family, peers). Second circle? More abstract things like succes in school, relationships, the absence of bullying. For a regulatory change to have a meaningfull and measurable effect on suicides (literally the most drastic step available) is hard on first sight. And then the step to research design. How would one expect to find a determinating factor by a DiD-design with only some regulatory measure as an explanatory factor? For me, after looking into this study. First explain me the state by state differences in teen suicides over time adequately, before you start explaining the effect of gay marriage on teen suicides.
Brockenstein 10y ago
It is interesting that the study showed a drop across all teens. I mean a drop among lgbtq teens seems pretty predictable, so I'm not surprised that the effect seems to be much greater for them. For a lot of lgbtq teens who are having a rough time because the sliver of the world that they live in is against them at every turn, the hope that the wider world is more accepting and that they'll have equal rights and protections, that they'll just be able to live, has to provide hope to some. Same-sex marriage is just another rung in the ladder of progress and every step up that ladder is going to be the tipping point for someone to decide to live instead of checking out.
- ZeroGravitas 10y ago
  I have heard that suicide is 'contagious' in that it has 'copycat' outbreaks so if an LGBT teen doesn't attempt it, then perhaps a near suicidal non-LGBT teen in their community will also not attempt.
- jimmies 10y ago
  Perhaps the people who are the most likely to commit suicide (or be depressed enough to influence other people to commit suicide) are the people who are closet gays. There was a study which concluded closeted gay men tended to die much quicker because of HIV than openly gay men [1]. Especially the teens, they probably depend on family/parents much more than older people - so there might be a higher percentage of closeted gays in teens. If the study had only considered only teens who came out, that could have ignored those who are depressed of being gay but not yet come out. 1: https://newrepublic.com/article/113176/science-loneliness-how-isolation-can-kill-you https://newrepublic.com/article/113176/science-loneliness-ho...
rocky1138 10y ago
Previous HN discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13702202 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13702202
vivekd 10y ago
I just want to write quickly to say - "sample size." You can't make conclusions like the one in the title because we don't have a large enough sample size of nations that legalized same sex marriage to reliably make conclusions about how it affects suicide rates, especially when you consider other variables such as growing acceptance of homosexuality and growing awareness of things like depression. This "comparison methodology" that the researchers presume to get around that - does not get around the problem of small sample sizes nor does it eliminate other variables such as social attitudes because the legalization of gay marriage itself is linked to changing social attitudes towards homosexuality. I am glad that gay suicides are down, but to say it's definitely linked to gay marriage is premature and unfounded. This research seems to be pseudo science in the service of a political agenda.
mcrowson 10y ago
http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
turc1656 10y ago
The national conversation on this topic is entirely wrong. The supreme court has clearly stated a number of times over the the years (http://afer.org/blog/14-supreme-court-cases-marriage-is-a-fundamental-right/ http://afer.org/blog/14-supreme-court-cases-marriage-is-a-fu...) that marriage is a fundamental right. So what we should be asking the government is if it's a fundamental right, why do we require a license to get married? Fundamental rights are not supposed to require anything to exercise since we derive them not from the government but from our mere existence as human beings. I don't require a license to exercise my right to free speech and publish something online or create a film. I don't have to apply for a license to practice religion. Why the hell do I need permission from the government to get married, especially when such a ceremony (for most people) is a religious one? Sure, some people go to the justice of the peace to get married. But nearly everyone has a religious ceremony or they hire a neutral officiant (or have someone they know get ordained). Historically marriage has always been a religious ceremony. If we want to deem it something else, I'm fine with that. We can still allow people to get married and not have the government be involved. Why can't we just decide who we are going to get married to, and simply fill out some paperwork to declare (not ask permission) ourselves married and notify the government of our status change. Asking permission is obscene and defeats the entire purpose of declaring it a "fundamental right".
- gdulli 10y ago
  I also thought it was strange that the fight was over "winning" permission from the government to have a relationship rather than ditching the idea that permission should be needed.
  - maxerickson 10y ago
    Married people enjoy benefits in the eyes of the law. Of course the commitment of those involved is the most important part of a marriage, but given the way our society works, the legal rights are also quite important.
    - gdulli 10y ago
jlebrech 10y ago
can the same correlation be made from grindr?
b4xt3em4n 10y ago
When I saw studies like this, i guess a student of statistics is died somewhere.
matthewmorgan 10y ago
The fields of psychology and sociology have been churning out fake science for decades
josh5555 10y ago
World population of pirates directly linked to global warming.
helthanatos 10y ago
Didn't people already say this study was worthless because they couldn't actually find causation?
jrcii 10y ago
I believe homosexuality is wrong based on my religion, and by extension, gay marriage, and I don't appreciate the liberal majority on this website brow beating me with their politics when it has nothing to do even tangentially with technology.
lngnmn 10y ago
That could be linked to cheaper and better smartphones, better and more available video-games, raise of streaming and shitty TV shows or increase of traffic to 4chan.

207 points by Liriel 10y ago

TazeTSchnitzel 10y ago

Wonder if, by the same token, teen suicides increase in states introducing new anti-LGBT laws. (Probably.)

misja111 10y ago

See also: http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

jawns 10y ago

When I read studies like this, one of the first things I like to do is look around for critiques. On conservative commentary website Stream.org, statistician William M. Briggs (who, take it for what it's worth, opposes same-sex marriage) offers a critique of the study's methodology and conclusion, as well as the conclusion that the study expressly does not make, but that the headlines have made: https://stream.org/no-a-study-did-not-show-that-same-sex-marriage-laws-reduce-teen-suicide-rates/ https://stream.org/no-a-study-did-not-show-that-same-sex-mar... A few interesting snippets from his critique: > A weighted 8.6% to a weighted 8%, they say. This is a 7% reduction, all right, but a minor tweak in the actual weighted number. The numbers are weighted averages across several states and the result of a statistical model called a linear regression. The 0.6 drop is not observed, but is the output from a model. > The numbers within states is anything but straightforward (the authors provide graphs). For instance, some states show reported suicide attempts increasing after gmarriage (New York, Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont, for example). The graphs also indicate a general decline in rates before gmarriage and continuing afterwards (see their Fig. 3). > putting Ebola in the model works equally well with gmarriage to explain the data. So do the disasters of those crashing Malaysian airliners, or the fighting in Ukraine and Crimea. So does the 2014 Winter Olympics! One other point that Briggs makes only indirectly, but bears mentioning, is that measuring the number of self-reported unsuccessful suicide attempts only provides us with part of the picture; we can't make any firm conclusions about what its rise or fall says about suicide prevention unless we also know the number of _successful_ suicide attempts. For instance, it might be the case that some suicide prevention factor reduces the likelihood that any given suicide attempt is successful. Maybe hospitals have gotten better at reducing the mortality rate of intentional overdoses. In such a case, the rate of suicide attempts might remain relatively flat, but the rate of unsuccessful suicide attempts would rise, and the rate of successful suicide attempts would fall.

libeclipse 10y ago
Whether or not you agree with same sex marriage (I myself am libertarian) this comment is well thought out and informative. I don't see why it was downvoted.
thebooktocome 10y ago
His critique seems rather desperate. Statistical noise is always present, so of course suicide among GSM teens did not uniformly drop. The JAMA study used different years for different states, as same-sex marriage became legal in different states at different times. His criticism about "any event in 2014 explains this drop in suicide" is malformed.
- jawns 10y ago
  This is a fair point, although it should be noted that 19 states legalized gay marriage in 2014 compared with only 16 states in any of the prior years examined. And 8 of those 16 were in 2013. So, 27 out of 35 states examined legalized same-sex marriage either in 2014 or within one year prior. I would be interested to learn just how much the data from those other 8 states affect the weighted average the authors used to identify the association. By the way, if you look at the accompanying figure 2 and figure 3 in the JAMA article, you will see just how noisy the data is for both Wave 1 and Wave 2 states, as well as the relative lack of post-2014 data points. Honestly, just looking at those two charts should be enough to give you a healthy skepticism about the conclusion, whatever your ideological views.
- wjnc 10y ago
  Have you looked at the main plots? They're terribly noisy. And because of the difference-in-difference design, a pretty strong covariate for adult suicide (economy / labour participation) is not taken into account. Take perspective of the modeller. What would be the first circle of influence in teen suicide? Probably direct social interactions (family, peers). Second circle? More abstract things like succes in school, relationships, the absence of bullying. For a regulatory change to have a meaningfull and measurable effect on suicides (literally the most drastic step available) is hard on first sight. And then the step to research design. How would one expect to find a determinating factor by a DiD-design with only some regulatory measure as an explanatory factor? For me, after looking into this study. First explain me the state by state differences in teen suicides over time adequately, before you start explaining the effect of gay marriage on teen suicides.

Brockenstein 10y ago

It is interesting that the study showed a drop across all teens. I mean a drop among lgbtq teens seems pretty predictable, so I'm not surprised that the effect seems to be much greater for them. For a lot of lgbtq teens who are having a rough time because the sliver of the world that they live in is against them at every turn, the hope that the wider world is more accepting and that they'll have equal rights and protections, that they'll just be able to live, has to provide hope to some. Same-sex marriage is just another rung in the ladder of progress and every step up that ladder is going to be the tipping point for someone to decide to live instead of checking out.

ZeroGravitas 10y ago
I have heard that suicide is 'contagious' in that it has 'copycat' outbreaks so if an LGBT teen doesn't attempt it, then perhaps a near suicidal non-LGBT teen in their community will also not attempt.
jimmies 10y ago
Perhaps the people who are the most likely to commit suicide (or be depressed enough to influence other people to commit suicide) are the people who are closet gays. There was a study which concluded closeted gay men tended to die much quicker because of HIV than openly gay men [1]. Especially the teens, they probably depend on family/parents much more than older people - so there might be a higher percentage of closeted gays in teens. If the study had only considered only teens who came out, that could have ignored those who are depressed of being gay but not yet come out. 1: https://newrepublic.com/article/113176/science-loneliness-how-isolation-can-kill-you https://newrepublic.com/article/113176/science-loneliness-ho...

rocky1138 10y ago

Previous HN discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13702202 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13702202

vivekd 10y ago

I just want to write quickly to say - "sample size." You can't make conclusions like the one in the title because we don't have a large enough sample size of nations that legalized same sex marriage to reliably make conclusions about how it affects suicide rates, especially when you consider other variables such as growing acceptance of homosexuality and growing awareness of things like depression. This "comparison methodology" that the researchers presume to get around that - does not get around the problem of small sample sizes nor does it eliminate other variables such as social attitudes because the legalization of gay marriage itself is linked to changing social attitudes towards homosexuality. I am glad that gay suicides are down, but to say it's definitely linked to gay marriage is premature and unfounded. This research seems to be pseudo science in the service of a political agenda.

mcrowson 10y ago

http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

turc1656 10y ago

The national conversation on this topic is entirely wrong. The supreme court has clearly stated a number of times over the the years (http://afer.org/blog/14-supreme-court-cases-marriage-is-a-fundamental-right/ http://afer.org/blog/14-supreme-court-cases-marriage-is-a-fu...) that marriage is a fundamental right. So what we should be asking the government is if it's a fundamental right, why do we require a license to get married? Fundamental rights are not supposed to require anything to exercise since we derive them not from the government but from our mere existence as human beings. I don't require a license to exercise my right to free speech and publish something online or create a film. I don't have to apply for a license to practice religion. Why the hell do I need permission from the government to get married, especially when such a ceremony (for most people) is a religious one? Sure, some people go to the justice of the peace to get married. But nearly everyone has a religious ceremony or they hire a neutral officiant (or have someone they know get ordained). Historically marriage has always been a religious ceremony. If we want to deem it something else, I'm fine with that. We can still allow people to get married and not have the government be involved. Why can't we just decide who we are going to get married to, and simply fill out some paperwork to declare (not ask permission) ourselves married and notify the government of our status change. Asking permission is obscene and defeats the entire purpose of declaring it a "fundamental right".

gdulli 10y ago
I also thought it was strange that the fight was over "winning" permission from the government to have a relationship rather than ditching the idea that permission should be needed.
- maxerickson 10y ago
  Married people enjoy benefits in the eyes of the law. Of course the commitment of those involved is the most important part of a marriage, but given the way our society works, the legal rights are also quite important.
  - gdulli 10y ago

jlebrech 10y ago

can the same correlation be made from grindr?

b4xt3em4n 10y ago

When I saw studies like this, i guess a student of statistics is died somewhere.

matthewmorgan 10y ago

The fields of psychology and sociology have been churning out fake science for decades

josh5555 10y ago

World population of pirates directly linked to global warming.

helthanatos 10y ago

Didn't people already say this study was worthless because they couldn't actually find causation?

jrcii 10y ago

I believe homosexuality is wrong based on my religion, and by extension, gay marriage, and I don't appreciate the liberal majority on this website brow beating me with their politics when it has nothing to do even tangentially with technology.

lngnmn 10y ago

That could be linked to cheaper and better smartphones, better and more available video-games, raise of streaming and shitty TV shows or increase of traffic to 4chan.