3 ms·
Peak oil and peak oil demand are two different things though, and I peak oil demand is relatively recent. The original peak oil theory was that at some point th
by cstejerean 10y ago
Peak oil and peak oil demand are two different things though, and I
peak oil demand is relatively recent. The original peak oil theory was that at some point the peak production would be reached, after which production had nowhere to go but down. Since demand would continue to increase this would lead to ridiculously high oil prices and all types of terrible consequences. Peak production however never materialized because we kept finding new reserves and new technology to extract more out of fields (like hydaraulic fracturing).
Then the world realized that oil demand will peak before oil production does. It's still hard to predict exactly when this will happen, but it's very different from peak production. Peak oil relied on us not finding new reserves and technology not improving. Peak oil demand on the other hand is based on technology continuing to improve so that the cost of generating and storing electricity will shift a lot of demand away from oil. I think this second prediction is a lot more likely than the first, and it's the reason I never worried about peak oil in the first place. People are really good at coming up with new technologies and lowering the cost of alternative energy sources. So I never bought into the doom and gloom stories of what would happen when we run out of oil.