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Individual experts may make very inaccurate predictions, sure. But averaged together you get the wisdom of crowds effect.
by Houshalter 10y ago
Individual experts may make very inaccurate predictions, sure. But averaged together you get the wisdom of crowds effect.
- wskinner 10y agoOnly if those experts' individual inaccuracies are uncorrelated - which for public intellectuals, they will probably always be. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds#Failures_of_crowd_intelligence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds#Failures_...