7 ms·

I feel like said decline will take a very long time. As more of the world is lifted out of poverty ICE powered transpo will become within reach. EV use may expl

I feel like said decline will take a very long time. As more of the world is lifted out of poverty ICE powered transpo will become within reach. EV use may explode amongst the global top 1% (>=$33k/yr) but gasoline has a much higher energy density than Tesla's batteries (more portable absent infrastructure) and there is a highly competitive global supply chain for small durable ICE's. Furthermore, the demand for plastics and hydrocarbons for other uses will only increase with global income levels rising.

maxsilver 10y ago
> As more of the world is lifted out of poverty ICE powered transpo will become within reach. I think, if EV prices keep falling like they have been, developing nations may skip ICE cars and jump straight to EVs (similar to how many nations 'skipped' landline phones and went straight to cellular)
- sjwright 10y ago
  Entirely, in my estimation, because you can get cheap and/or second hand cellular phones. Whereas you can't make a cheap and/or second hand landline. One thing we know about ICE cars is they can be produced cheaply (think moped, not sedan) and there's an endless supply of used copies.
  - mrpopo 10y ago
    Sounds like you are only thinking of the cellular phone handset itself. A single cell network tower costs in the hundreds of thousands of dollars. Not sure about the cost of landline installations.
  - dTal 10y ago
    You moved the goalposts a wee bit there; a moped is not a car. Electric vehicles of this class are also cheap, much easier to hack/repair than combustion-driven ones, and do not require much power to charge. Petrol-powered mopeds have advantages of their own, of course (durability, horsepower, range), but it's by no means clear cut.
- ryanmarsh 10y ago
  With significant innovation in power generation and transmission this might be possible. Absent these innovations they will follow the path of least resistance and that will be ICE. Time will tell.
  - Retric 10y ago
    As solar and battery prices keep dropping the charge at home infrastructure becomes ever more appealing. Oil on the other hand already has little room to become cheaper.
    - ryanmarsh 10y ago
      The capex on a tin can for gasoline will always beat a solar roof and Power Wall
      - Retric 10y ago
        Not when you can rent the solar panels for zero down. Then it's just monthly cost X vs monthly cost Y. Remember, our solar prices are based on western installation costs, 3rd world pays less for solar but does not get a discount on Oil.
        deleted 10y ago
        [deleted]
      - tonyedgecombe 10y ago
        Since when did you get your gasoline in a tin can?
        ryanmarsh 10y ago
        Ever been to a 3rd world country?
        tonyedgecombe 10y ago
Johnny555 10y ago
The 2017 Chevy Bolt claims a 238 mile range. The Honda Fit get s 32 city mpg and has a 10.6 gallon tank, for 339 miles of range. So EV's are not that far behind conventional cars, so the higher energy density of gasoline makes less and less of a difference... especially for commuters since they can refuel at home instead of seeking out a gas station, so they only need enough range to get to work and back (plus a cushion for detours and errands). Our commuter car hasn't made it more than 100 miles from home in its 5 year lifetime.
- Hydraulix989 10y ago
  The 2017 Bolt claims a 238 mile range a lot like Lenovo claims my laptop has 10 hour battery life. I'm lucky to get 4 hours with normal use, but if I turn off my music, disable wifi, turn the screen brightness all the way down, don't use Chrome, etc. I'll probably get at least double.
  - Johnny555 10y ago
    Granted, your mileage will vary depending on your actual driving patterns and weather, but the LA Times got 240 miles on a single charge, and could have driven farther: http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-bolt-ev-drive-20160912-snap-story.html http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-bolt-ev-drive... Car and Driver got 238 miles with range to spare: http://blog.caranddriver.com/how-i-drove-238-miles-in-the-chevy-bolt-ev-and-still-had-range-to-spare/ http://blog.caranddriver.com/how-i-drove-238-miles-in-the-ch...
    - kagamine 10y ago
      > Monterrey was cool and foggy... Leading image from the article article taken in Monterrey neither foggy nor cool looking, instead appears as what would pass for summer in many parts of Europe and Canada.
      - Johnny555 10y ago
        While foggy Monterey weather may pass for summer in many parts of Europe and Canada, they weren't in Europe or Canada, they were in Monterey. Though I'm not sure what "cool looking" weather looks like in a photo of an automobile with no living creature around. If you don't believe they saw fog, the video included with the article shows the fog when he's crossing Bixby Bridge, about 30 minutes south of Monterey - skip to the 30 second mark.
erikb 10y ago
what is ICE and EV? *edit: Okay found it myself through realizing that these two are related. Internal Combustion Engine = ICE Electric Vehicle = EV These are not common terms, though. And googling something that looks to google like "icecream" is hard. Please keep that in mind when using abbreviations.

maxsilver 10y ago

> As more of the world is lifted out of poverty ICE powered transpo will become within reach. I think, if EV prices keep falling like they have been, developing nations may skip ICE cars and jump straight to EVs (similar to how many nations 'skipped' landline phones and went straight to cellular)

sjwright 10y ago
Entirely, in my estimation, because you can get cheap and/or second hand cellular phones. Whereas you can't make a cheap and/or second hand landline. One thing we know about ICE cars is they can be produced cheaply (think moped, not sedan) and there's an endless supply of used copies.
- mrpopo 10y ago
  Sounds like you are only thinking of the cellular phone handset itself. A single cell network tower costs in the hundreds of thousands of dollars. Not sure about the cost of landline installations.
- dTal 10y ago
  You moved the goalposts a wee bit there; a moped is not a car. Electric vehicles of this class are also cheap, much easier to hack/repair than combustion-driven ones, and do not require much power to charge. Petrol-powered mopeds have advantages of their own, of course (durability, horsepower, range), but it's by no means clear cut.
ryanmarsh 10y ago
With significant innovation in power generation and transmission this might be possible. Absent these innovations they will follow the path of least resistance and that will be ICE. Time will tell.
- Retric 10y ago
  As solar and battery prices keep dropping the charge at home infrastructure becomes ever more appealing. Oil on the other hand already has little room to become cheaper.
  - ryanmarsh 10y ago
    The capex on a tin can for gasoline will always beat a solar roof and Power Wall
    - Retric 10y ago
      Not when you can rent the solar panels for zero down. Then it's just monthly cost X vs monthly cost Y. Remember, our solar prices are based on western installation costs, 3rd world pays less for solar but does not get a discount on Oil.
      - deleted 10y ago
        [deleted]
    - tonyedgecombe 10y ago
      Since when did you get your gasoline in a tin can?
      - ryanmarsh 10y ago
        Ever been to a 3rd world country?
        tonyedgecombe 10y ago

Johnny555 10y ago

The 2017 Chevy Bolt claims a 238 mile range. The Honda Fit get s 32 city mpg and has a 10.6 gallon tank, for 339 miles of range. So EV's are not that far behind conventional cars, so the higher energy density of gasoline makes less and less of a difference... especially for commuters since they can refuel at home instead of seeking out a gas station, so they only need enough range to get to work and back (plus a cushion for detours and errands). Our commuter car hasn't made it more than 100 miles from home in its 5 year lifetime.

Hydraulix989 10y ago
The 2017 Bolt claims a 238 mile range a lot like Lenovo claims my laptop has 10 hour battery life. I'm lucky to get 4 hours with normal use, but if I turn off my music, disable wifi, turn the screen brightness all the way down, don't use Chrome, etc. I'll probably get at least double.
- Johnny555 10y ago
  Granted, your mileage will vary depending on your actual driving patterns and weather, but the LA Times got 240 miles on a single charge, and could have driven farther: http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-bolt-ev-drive-20160912-snap-story.html http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-bolt-ev-drive... Car and Driver got 238 miles with range to spare: http://blog.caranddriver.com/how-i-drove-238-miles-in-the-chevy-bolt-ev-and-still-had-range-to-spare/ http://blog.caranddriver.com/how-i-drove-238-miles-in-the-ch...
  - kagamine 10y ago
    > Monterrey was cool and foggy... Leading image from the article article taken in Monterrey neither foggy nor cool looking, instead appears as what would pass for summer in many parts of Europe and Canada.
    - Johnny555 10y ago
      While foggy Monterey weather may pass for summer in many parts of Europe and Canada, they weren't in Europe or Canada, they were in Monterey. Though I'm not sure what "cool looking" weather looks like in a photo of an automobile with no living creature around. If you don't believe they saw fog, the video included with the article shows the fog when he's crossing Bixby Bridge, about 30 minutes south of Monterey - skip to the 30 second mark.

erikb 10y ago

what is ICE and EV? *edit: Okay found it myself through realizing that these two are related. Internal Combustion Engine = ICE Electric Vehicle = EV These are not common terms, though. And googling something that looks to google like "icecream" is hard. Please keep that in mind when using abbreviations.