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I wouldn't place too much stake in predictions made by experts. There is evidence that these may be far less accurate than we'd like to think, even for very nea
by wskinner 10y ago
I wouldn't place too much stake in predictions made by experts. There is evidence that these may be far less accurate than we'd like to think, even for very near events. See http://press.princeton.edu/titles/7959.html http://press.princeton.edu/titles/7959.html. This research was also discussed in Thinking Fast and Slow.
- Houshalter 10y agoIndividual experts may make very inaccurate predictions, sure. But averaged together you get the wisdom of crowds effect.
- wskinner 10y agoOnly if those experts' individual inaccuracies are uncorrelated - which for public intellectuals, they will probably always be. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds#Failures_of_crowd_intelligence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds#Failures_...