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Would Calexit be a good thing?
- eximius 10y agoNo.
- exception_e 10y agoCorrect. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge's_law_of_headlines https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge's_law_of_headlines :)
- CuriouslyC 10y agoCalifornia is almost certainly going to break off from the larger United States in our lifetime. The interests of the United States are already too heterogeneous to be effectively served by a single government, and the problem is only going to get worse. I don't believe California will be successful if it attempts to secede solo though. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that if it is going to work, it will need to secede as part of a coordinated action with Washington and Oregon. The end result will probably be a commonwealth of nations relationship similar to the one shared by Canada and Great Britain. I've even got a catchy name for this new nation: the pacific coalition of states, or Pac Coast for short. I'm also going to go out on a limb and predict that a combination of pushback on federal enforcement of marijuana laws and immigration policy is going to be the match that starts the fire burning. I believe popular pressure on both of these issues is going to force the coastal states to take a stand rather than roll over, and things are going to escalate from there.
- JonFish85 10y ago"California is almost certainly going to break off from the larger United States in our lifetime." What?! That won't happen.
- M_Grey 10y agoOn what planet do you expect that the US at large is going to accept 1/7th of their economy seceding without a fight?
- JBReefer 10y agoI saw it here in NYC after the election - "We'll secede, and we'll fight the other states if it comes to it." OK, good luck winning when no one owns guns, trucks, generators etc. It's a pipe dream. You can't win a war with a bicycle and a baseball bat. Montana could probably win a war of secession, but this ain't Montana.
- M_Grey 10y ago"You people of the South don't know what you are doing. This country will be drenched in blood, and God only knows how it will end. It is all folly, madness, a crime against civilization! You people speak so lightly of war; you don't know what you're talking about. War is a terrible thing! You mistake, too, the people of the North. They are a peaceable people but an earnest people, and they will fight, too. They are not going to let this country be destroyed without a mighty effort to save it… Besides, where are your men and appliances of war to contend against them? The North can make a steam engine, locomotive, or railway car; hardly a yard of cloth or pair of shoes can you make. You are rushing into war with one of the most powerful, ingeniously mechanical, and determined people on Earth — right at your doors. You are bound to fail. Only in your spirit and determination are you prepared for war. In all else you are totally unprepared, with a bad cause to start with. At first you will make headway, but as your limited resources begin to fail, shut out from the markets of Europe as you will be, your cause will begin to wane. If your people will but stop and think, they must see in the end that you will surely fail. " (Gen. Sherman) Ironic reversal, but you're 100% correct.
- CuriouslyC 10y agoIn this hyper-connected social media age, the horror of a war waged on people that you closely identify with would have the near instant effect of turning the population against the government waging it. It is much more likely that the federal government would try to put strings in place so that it could act as a puppet-master for the newly "independent" nation.
- phamilton 10y agoI would go further and say that California will split into 7 states, Washington and Oregon will split into 5 between them. Then we can go further and call this new union the Twelve States of the Pacific, or Pac12.
- JBReefer 10y agoNo. People in the current bubble forget that California is usually broke/in legislative crises, which might be about to happen again. Texas is probably the only state capable of thriving if it secedes, CA doesn't even have it's own electric grid. * https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%9312_California_budget_crisis https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%9312_California_b... * http://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/California-s-400-billion-debt-worries-analysts-6812264.php http://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/California-s-400...
- Q6T46nT668w6i3m 10y agoMA and NY have major economies and plenty of legislative cooperation.
- JBReefer 10y agoAnd no shared border. Also, NY State is much more conservative than people assume, the State legislature is usually controlled by Republicans.
- tossaway1 10y ago> And no shared border. TIL MA and NY do not share a border...
- grzm 10y agoAnd no shared border. Massachusetts borders New York to the east. Or were you thinking California?
- JBReefer 10y agoYes. It's a different thing to have partners in the legislature vs 2 of the most powerful states willing to join your new country. I don't know if the USA could be remotely the same if NY, MA, TX, and FL seceeded. I do know that they wouldn't at the same time, just by the nature of geography.
- 10y ago
- ygaf 10y agoI love that this writer puts on no airs. >As far as defense goes—would you want to fuck with a country with the world’s best drones, robots, tech weapons, missile defense systems, and cyberattack abilities? No one would dare attack California. Most people try to sound more important and qualified when discussing something so radical.
- hrodriguez 10y agoThe very idea is insane. I think we need to do a better job of fighting the divisive forces attempting to destroy this country, led by a domestic terrorist like George Soros. The site itself seems to be run by children[1]. This is where HN news is coming from now? http://waitbutwhy.com/wait-but-who http://waitbutwhy.com/wait-but-who
- perardi 10y agoThe right thinks Soros funds everything. The left thinks the Koch brothers fund everything. Me, I'm waiting around for a shadowy billionaire to fund my histrionic internet posting. $30/per trolling comment seems fair.
- DrScump 10y agoI'm waiting around for a shadowy billionaire to fund my histrionic internet posting. Me, too. I keep looking for such an offer in the "Who is hiring?" postings, but no dice.
- spootnik 10y agoYou can tell there are always a bunch of shill posts on HN.
- adrenalinelol 10y agoThere is a plethora of issues that have to be addressed, to name a few: * The U.S. Government would have to be ok w/losing a ~1/6th of it's economy. * California has no military; funding such would be expensive. * All existing multilateral agreements the U.S has entered into would NOT apply to an independent California. An independent California would have less bargaining power in renegotiating said agreements.
- Isamu 10y agoI don't disagree but the California National Guard is under state control normally, when it isn't federalized by special order. Some 23,000 individuals. They'd have to act quickly to seize control before the federal government but it could be done.
- gremlinsinc 10y agoI think the wiser plan would be for technology companies who are pro-secession join forces and create a militia of tech -- i.e. invest in robotic/drone tech for military purposes, that way they can unleash a war if need be--but one of robots/drones instead of people. I think the next world war will be more about technology than it will people fighting people. Controlling drone/robotic weapons tech could be huge for a country wanting to secede.
- hprotagonist 10y agoMr. Lee's Greater Hong Kong. (username v. relevant)
- jmspring 10y agoAlso missing from things is the fact that more rural parts of the west coast are much more conservative than areas close to the ocean. Look up continued interest in the State of Jefferson.
- darnton 10y agoThe United States is a maritime superpower, able to project power across the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Losing the Pacific coast would end that. I can't imagine it being let go easily.
- lebanon_tn 10y agoThe bulk of U.S. naval forces in California are in the San Diego region. It's possible the U.S. could negotiate a border that leaves the naval bases as well as the Marine Corps base at Camp Pendleton as part of the United States. (The entire swath of Southern California below Los Angeles.)
- koyao 10y agoHe who controls the nukes, controls California's destiny.
- JBReefer 10y agoAnd for non-American readers, those are located in the big, flat central states that California would be seceeding from.
- justin66 10y agoIf command authority to launch ICBMs devolves to the states where the missiles are stationed, that will be an indicator that civilization is over. The political fate of California would be a footnote.
- jurassic 10y agoIf somebody is stealing your car do you shoot out the tires with a rocket launcher to stop him? That's what nuking California would amount to. Launching nukes would be suicidally stupid for a number of reasons. Firstly, we're upwind of the rest of the US and radioactive fallout would be transported to adjacent states. We didn't realize it when we were performing original tests in Nevada, but now we know there was a significant spike in cancers occurring in the people of St. George Utah, for example, as a result of 1950s nuclear tests in Nevada. A more immediate and practical concern is that California is responsible for a significant proportion of the United States' food supply.
- Glyptodon 10y agoWhether it's good or not Cal would instantly get a civil war with the Jefferson people unless the exit agreement included allowing a State of Jefferson to replace Cal.
- vonnik 10y agoThis is one of the stupidest things ever published on WaitButWhy. The Civil War killed more Americans (~750k) than WWI and WWII combined. Think of it as SouthExit. There are powerful forces binding this union together, and they will not allow a gentle transition to an independent California. So any one who wants Calexit, wants war, and war is really, really stupid. I'm baffled by the irresponsibility of this discussion. This isn't like moving out of your parents' basement because they told you to stop smoking weed. Let's just remember, when we compare Calexit to Brexit, that Britain was and is a sovereign nation, and at no point in its history did it cease to be so. Stupid as Brexit was, the UK's right to leave the EU was enshrined in the articles of the EU. California is not Great Britain. The analogy does not hold. Calexit is sponsored by Russia. "Yes California" is run by a guy based in Yekaterinburg.[0] What should this tell us? The enemies of the US want California to secede. Separatists are playing into their hands. Russia sabotaged the US presidential election, and now it is trying to break up the continental 48. That would lead to a weakened and divided country, much more so than it is today. Secession would also lead to a more fragmented North America, indecisive as Europe. There is no such thing as a clean slate. Calexit does nto present us with that opportunity. History is a nightmare from which we cannot escape, as Joyce said. The WBW author is basically saying he wants California to exit to speed the advance of technology so he can become immortal. Why should we care about his immortality? And why should we believe that Calexit would accelerate technological development? He gave zero substantive argument that Calexit would have an affect on tech. Just remember, every state in the US benefits from its close relationship with all the other states. There are huge positive externalities to union and the free movement of goods, people and capital. All of that ends with Calexit. Anyone who see a carefree paradise in separatism is living in a fantasy world. [0] https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/21/us/yes-california-calexit-marinelli-russia.html?_r=0 https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/21/us/yes-california-calexit...
- xiphias 10y agoBrexit is a mess. It's the first time that I'm seeing British people leaving their own country and come to Switzerland where they don't know the language at all. My friends who moved to London from Eastern Europe want to leave, because the worth of their salary dropped by 20% on the global scale, and all they can hear about is Brexit and the negativity around it. Britain is not fun anymore for anybody living there. Also older people who voted for the Brexit are just starting to realize how much they depend on foreigners.
- increment_i 10y agoIt's hard for me to see a scenario where a Calexit doesn't mark the end of American hegemony and quite likely the United States itself. A successful Calexit would without doubt lead to a New York exit. Now there's no way Texas is sticking around. And the Carolinas and Florida want to make a go of it too, etc. Once the pillars have fallen, the house collapses. Isn't that basically how all great empires slowly crumble? So the stakes do seem quite a bit higher than outlined in this article and others I've read like it.
- gremlinsinc 10y agoWould it really be so bad? Cultures/beliefs/values vary tremendously from region to region, and smaller country subsets would be able to iterate faster to support their own value/belief systems.. Texas and related states that join it's new union could be as red as they want, California and those who join w/ can be as blue, and have things like Single-payer healthcare, no public prisons, no anti-immigration laws and open borders. -- U.S. as a super power has been waning for awhile now, and will continue to do so. Rome conquered the entire world, yet somehow a group of germanic tribes brought it to the ground. -- Every empire in history has fallen, America is no different.
- spootnik 10y agoPutting everyone into echo chambers is the stupidest idea. You'll get such radical agendas pushed. Balance and variety is good.
- helthanatos 10y agoToo bad that's what we've done... If you look at America's history, political parties have been divided by a few issues and that's it. For the most part, the political parties until the 1900s followed Washington's wish of not being divided. Sadly, these modern political parties have decided that issues must be divided by party. This has lead to pretty much every issue we face today to be voted against by one party simply because the other party thinks they can't support it because it's somehow a partisan idea. The media has also made this worse by not documenting things objectively. Citizens think one party is pure evil and the other one is magically full of saints. Unless you ask a libertarian about which party is better, you'll probably get a terribly slanted view. I don't understand this. Both parties have some rotten people, but why is it expected of the American public (it is expected) to vilify one party? Issues about whether the government should be small and whether agrarian life is best have left to be about whether the government should tax its citizens into submission and whether it should be a police state. The much more rigid divide in beliefs is good for no one. I can't vote for anyone without them contradicting some of my beliefs because I don't follow the awkward divide in political ideals.
- maxlybbert 10y agoProposition 8 added "Only marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognized in California" to the state constitution. The Supreme Court ruled that violated the federal Constitution. If California left the US, would that resurrect Proposition 8? How about Proposition 187, which didn't modify the state constitution, but set up a system of state laws that a federal court ruled violated the federal Constitution?
- grzm 10y agoThose are legitimate questions that would have to be answered as part of the national government California would set up. Going back over all of the historical differences between US federal and CA state law. I suspect however, that nothing would revert. If those were important issues to CA citizens after secession, I think it's more likely that such propositions would be reintroduced.
- bobthechef 10y agoInteresting that there is no mention of demographics. Hispanics account for almost 40% of the population, close to 80% of which are Mexican. Following secession and taking history into account, there is reason to speculate that California could become the subject of Mexican annexation, or at the very least, subject to turmoil that could arise from stoking such sentiments among a very sizable chunk of the population, most of which is not associated with tech. Furthermore, secession, if it is to be meaningful, would make a geopolitical impact that would arguably be good for neither California nor the rest of the US (nor the world for that matter; with a weakened US, worse things can fill the vacuum). What I could see is something more in line with right-leaning thought i.e. greater autonomy of the states and greater decentralization of power. (On a somewhat humorous note: if Putin is spurring Calexit movements, then it sounds to me like a perversion of Pilsudski's Prometheism[0], except that Pilsudski was motivated by a desire to neutralize the threat that Russia posed.) [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prometheism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prometheism
- wrsh07 10y agoThis post might be worth a damn if Tim thought a little bit harder about why Russia thinks Calexit would be good for them. It's not obvious or true that anything good for Russia is bad for the US, but when you see the country who recently interfered in an election (propaganda, releasing dnc emails) is also interested in weakening the union of your states further.... maybe consider why before jumping on board.