The 'hype cycle' [1] applies to all things. http://www.gartner.com/technology/research/methodologies/hype-cycle.jsp http://www.gartner.com/technology/research/

The 'hype cycle' [1] applies to all things. http://www.gartner.com/technology/research/methodologies/hype-cycle.jsp http://www.gartner.com/technology/research/methodologies/hyp... Whether or not something has a real utilitarian value determines if it will rise from the 'trough of disillusionment'. Movements that are entirely emotional or euphoric (think music bands) - won't. Products that are fun/fickle or mostly trendy (think some apps) won't either. Products that have material value outside the hype hang on. So the 'real long term value' of something is usually best measured by how well they do after the 'uncool' phase. Facebook has done well after they became 'uncool'. Twitter - not as well, but nevertheless they will stick around. Snapchat? I think there is a lot more risk.