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I figured the same (the original Welt article thelocal.de quotes does not even say "refugees commit less crime than Germans" btw). So, "less than 1%" of the "v
by rndgermandude 10y ago
I figured the same (the original Welt article thelocal.de quotes does not even say "refugees commit less crime than Germans" btw).
So, "less than 1%" of the "very low six figure" number of total crimes committed by refugees are sex crimes.
Ok then, so let's conservatively say it's 100,000 * 0.009 = 900 sex crimes (not sure about what time range that even covers? 1 year? First 9 months in 2015 since the report was compiled in Oct 2016).
There have been 7022 sex crimes (reported) in 2015[1], total.
Using that, the conservative estimate for sex crimes committed by refugees of the total sex crimes committed is:
900 / 7022 = 12.8%
Let's assume (and grossly overestimate really) there were about 1.5 million refugees total in (the end of) 2015 and a total population of 81 million.
So 1.8% of the population was refugees, yet that cohort committed 12% of sex crimes.
But 900 / 1.5M refugees is a at most 0.06% of refugees (not even considering multiple offenders) who commit sex crimes, compared to the total population rate of 7022 / 81M = 0.009%
Downplaying the issue is not helpful. On the other hand, it's not helpful either but actually dangerous to rubberstamp all refugees as sex offenders when only at most 0.06% of them committed a sex crime in 2015.
As pointed out already, there are many mitigating factors to put this into context.
[1] http://www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/Broschueren/2016/pks-2015.pdf http://www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/Broschueren/2...