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Thank you for the actual statistics; can you provide a source for the legislative change? I found sources for 2005 and 2008 changes, but not one for 2013. Ther

by Sacho 10y ago

Thank you for the actual statistics; can you provide a source for the legislative change? I found sources for 2005 and 2008 changes, but not one for 2013. There's also one particular thing that doesn't pass the smell test for me from your German article: "Less than 1 percent of the total crimes committed by refugees are sex crimes, going against rumours spread on social media that these have become more common with the arrival of hundreds of thousands of refugees." 1% doesn't strike me as a very low percentage of sex crimes, but I googled around for some statistics, and found another article from the same source - https://www.thelocal.de/20160218/refugees-to-germany-commit-tiny-proportion-of-sex-crimes https://www.thelocal.de/20160218/refugees-to-germany-commit-... Here, the title is that "refugees commit less crime than Germans". However, the stats they quote show otherwise - despite refugees being anywhere from 0.8 to 2%, they committed at least 4% of the sex crimes in the country - a factor of at least 2. The article itself says that the sexual assaults reported during the New Year's Eve were not part of this number, so this is a conservative estimate. The article quotes a ratio of 2:1 men over women as a mitigating factor, however, doing the math most favorably towards refugees(100% of sexual assaults committed by men, 40/60 split in men/women in Germany) leaves you with an adjusted rate of ~2.6% of crimes, still significantly higher than their proportionate population. From that article though I was able to acquire this statistic for 2015: "The total number of this type of crime committed nationwide throughout 2015 was almost 47,000" From here - https://www.osac.gov/pages/ContentReportDetails.aspx?cid=17094 https://www.osac.gov/pages/ContentReportDetails.aspx?cid=170... - I found that the total criminal offenses in germany were close to ~6mil. From this you can calculate the rate of sexual assault for the german population - 47k / 6mil ~ 0.8%. It's not as significantly different from the previous number, but still doesn't support the claim that, at 1%, refugees commit less sexual crimes than the german population. EDIT: There is also a mitigating factor I just thought of that the newspaper didn't mention; refugees are likely to have a poor economic status in Germany, and are thus more likely to commit crimes for that factor alone. I don't know how to calculate for that as well.

qofcourse 10y ago
Long story short: "Islamic rape is no problem" is fake news.
- sctb 10y ago
  We need users to comment civilly and substantively, especially on controversial subjects. This just doesn't pass muster. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
edmccard 10y ago
>>"Less than 1 percent of the total crimes committed by refugees are sex crimes" That seems to mean something different than "less than 1 percent of total sex crimes are committed by refugees".
- etatoby 10y ago
  Precisely. These articles are full of Bayesian conceptual mistakes like this. It's going to be hard to prove anything without the source figures.
- rndgermandude 10y ago
  The original German article quoting the actual internal police paper is very clear that out of the "very low six digit figure" of total crimes committed by refugees, less than 1% of those "refugee crimes" were sex crimes. It does not in any way state the what chunk out of the total sex crimes were committed by refugees, indeed.
rndgermandude 10y ago
I figured the same (the original Welt article thelocal.de quotes does not even say "refugees commit less crime than Germans" btw). So, "less than 1%" of the "very low six figure" number of total crimes committed by refugees are sex crimes. Ok then, so let's conservatively say it's 100,000 * 0.009 = 900 sex crimes (not sure about what time range that even covers? 1 year? First 9 months in 2015 since the report was compiled in Oct 2016). There have been 7022 sex crimes (reported) in 2015[1], total. Using that, the conservative estimate for sex crimes committed by refugees of the total sex crimes committed is: 900 / 7022 = 12.8% Let's assume (and grossly overestimate really) there were about 1.5 million refugees total in (the end of) 2015 and a total population of 81 million. So 1.8% of the population was refugees, yet that cohort committed 12% of sex crimes. But 900 / 1.5M refugees is a at most 0.06% of refugees (not even considering multiple offenders) who commit sex crimes, compared to the total population rate of 7022 / 81M = 0.009% Downplaying the issue is not helpful. On the other hand, it's not helpful either but actually dangerous to rubberstamp all refugees as sex offenders when only at most 0.06% of them committed a sex crime in 2015. As pointed out already, there are many mitigating factors to put this into context. [1] http://www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/Broschueren/2016/pks-2015.pdf http://www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/Broschueren/2...
Nemcue 10y ago
For context: thelocal is not a reliable newspaper, you shouldn't base your facts from their articles.
freeflight 10y ago
How about you stop trying to interpret articles that try to interpret reports and instead go straight to the source aka the reports? Here's the BKA report on "Crime in the context of migrant influx 1st Quarter of 2016": https://www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/EN/Themen/Sicherheit/crime-in-the-context-of-migrant-influx.pdf;jsessionid=59D6AE204E11E0481D1DA8B459CFB271.2_cid364?__blob=publicationFile https://www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/EN/Themen/Siche... That report also puts the number of "sexual assaults", out of all the crimes committed by migrants, at 1.10%.
- Sacho 10y ago
  But I wasn't contesting that at all? I was taking the number of 1.1%, quoted as purportedly "really low", and trying to extrapolate what the number of sexual assaults is among the population at large. Like my last paragraph says, that extrapolation is around 0.8%, still not enough to justify a title "refugees commit less crime than Germans". The report you linked doesn't help me at all, only providing an even larger number than I started with for migrant crimes. In fact, the report just reaffirmed what I've already heard elsewhere - the vast majority of crimes come not from "Syrian refugees", but migrants from countries without a crisis that would lead to them seeking asylum. This has been a very common criticism of the "floodgate" approach to accepting all immigrants regardless of their ability to justify their refugee status.
  - freeflight 10y ago
    >The report you linked doesn't help me at all, only providing an even larger number than I started with for migrant crimes. The report is the only thing that actually matters in this context because it's the actual data. All your sources are just news-outlets trying to interpret data from sources they don't even share with the reader. >but migrants from countries without a crisis that would lead to them seeking asylum And half these countries are not even "Muslim countries", yet they are overrepresented in the crime rates, while people from countries like Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan are proportionally lower with their crime rates. Which goes straight against the common misconception of "It's their Islamic culture that makes them so criminal and incompatible to our culture!". > This has been a very common criticism of the "floodgate" approach to accepting all immigrants regardless of their ability to justify their refugee status. You first have to accept them to check if they actually qualify for refugee status, those that don't qualify don't get the status and thus have to leave the country. How else would you want to handle this? Leave them all outside the border so they create their own communities, without any infrastructure or law enforcement? Do you seriously think creating these kinds of "slums" would be beneficial to anybody?

by Sacho 10y ago

qofcourse 10y ago

Long story short: "Islamic rape is no problem" is fake news.

sctb 10y ago
We need users to comment civilly and substantively, especially on controversial subjects. This just doesn't pass muster. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

edmccard 10y ago

>>"Less than 1 percent of the total crimes committed by refugees are sex crimes" That seems to mean something different than "less than 1 percent of total sex crimes are committed by refugees".

etatoby 10y ago
Precisely. These articles are full of Bayesian conceptual mistakes like this. It's going to be hard to prove anything without the source figures.
rndgermandude 10y ago
The original German article quoting the actual internal police paper is very clear that out of the "very low six digit figure" of total crimes committed by refugees, less than 1% of those "refugee crimes" were sex crimes. It does not in any way state the what chunk out of the total sex crimes were committed by refugees, indeed.

rndgermandude 10y ago

I figured the same (the original Welt article thelocal.de quotes does not even say "refugees commit less crime than Germans" btw). So, "less than 1%" of the "very low six figure" number of total crimes committed by refugees are sex crimes. Ok then, so let's conservatively say it's 100,000 * 0.009 = 900 sex crimes (not sure about what time range that even covers? 1 year? First 9 months in 2015 since the report was compiled in Oct 2016). There have been 7022 sex crimes (reported) in 2015[1], total. Using that, the conservative estimate for sex crimes committed by refugees of the total sex crimes committed is: 900 / 7022 = 12.8% Let's assume (and grossly overestimate really) there were about 1.5 million refugees total in (the end of) 2015 and a total population of 81 million. So 1.8% of the population was refugees, yet that cohort committed 12% of sex crimes. But 900 / 1.5M refugees is a at most 0.06% of refugees (not even considering multiple offenders) who commit sex crimes, compared to the total population rate of 7022 / 81M = 0.009% Downplaying the issue is not helpful. On the other hand, it's not helpful either but actually dangerous to rubberstamp all refugees as sex offenders when only at most 0.06% of them committed a sex crime in 2015. As pointed out already, there are many mitigating factors to put this into context. [1] http://www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/Broschueren/2016/pks-2015.pdf http://www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/Broschueren/2...

Nemcue 10y ago

For context: thelocal is not a reliable newspaper, you shouldn't base your facts from their articles.

freeflight 10y ago

How about you stop trying to interpret articles that try to interpret reports and instead go straight to the source aka the reports? Here's the BKA report on "Crime in the context of migrant influx 1st Quarter of 2016": https://www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/EN/Themen/Sicherheit/crime-in-the-context-of-migrant-influx.pdf;jsessionid=59D6AE204E11E0481D1DA8B459CFB271.2_cid364?__blob=publicationFile https://www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/EN/Themen/Siche... That report also puts the number of "sexual assaults", out of all the crimes committed by migrants, at 1.10%.

Sacho 10y ago
But I wasn't contesting that at all? I was taking the number of 1.1%, quoted as purportedly "really low", and trying to extrapolate what the number of sexual assaults is among the population at large. Like my last paragraph says, that extrapolation is around 0.8%, still not enough to justify a title "refugees commit less crime than Germans". The report you linked doesn't help me at all, only providing an even larger number than I started with for migrant crimes. In fact, the report just reaffirmed what I've already heard elsewhere - the vast majority of crimes come not from "Syrian refugees", but migrants from countries without a crisis that would lead to them seeking asylum. This has been a very common criticism of the "floodgate" approach to accepting all immigrants regardless of their ability to justify their refugee status.
- freeflight 10y ago
  >The report you linked doesn't help me at all, only providing an even larger number than I started with for migrant crimes. The report is the only thing that actually matters in this context because it's the actual data. All your sources are just news-outlets trying to interpret data from sources they don't even share with the reader. >but migrants from countries without a crisis that would lead to them seeking asylum And half these countries are not even "Muslim countries", yet they are overrepresented in the crime rates, while people from countries like Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan are proportionally lower with their crime rates. Which goes straight against the common misconception of "It's their Islamic culture that makes them so criminal and incompatible to our culture!". > This has been a very common criticism of the "floodgate" approach to accepting all immigrants regardless of their ability to justify their refugee status. You first have to accept them to check if they actually qualify for refugee status, those that don't qualify don't get the status and thus have to leave the country. How else would you want to handle this? Leave them all outside the border so they create their own communities, without any infrastructure or law enforcement? Do you seriously think creating these kinds of "slums" would be beneficial to anybody?