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According to the official statistics on The Swedish Crime Survey, the sexual violence rate in Sweden remained about the same between 2005 and 2014. The refugee
by otalp 10y ago
According to the official statistics on The Swedish Crime Survey, the sexual violence rate in Sweden remained about the same between 2005 and 2014. The refugee crisis began around 2014, and since then, the rates for sexual violence went down in 2015[1] something you never see mentioned on certain parts of the internet. 2016 saw an increase in crimes, but still less than pre-immigration levels in 2014.
Also the Swedish national council for crime prevention expected this rise over the last few years because in 2013(before there was a serious influx of migrants) Sweden broadened the definition of rape. A similar increase in crime was seen around 2006 because of 'legislative changes' about how things were recorded.
In the US research on the link between immigration and crime largely find no link between the two[2], and of the relative minority of studies that find a link, there are twice as many studies that find that increased migration reduces crime as the reverse.
In Germany, refugees are less likely to commit a crime than the average citizen[3]. From the publicly available information it is impossible to conclude with certainty that taking in refugees increases crime, especially considering that the vast majority of 'crimes' they do commit are non-violent things like not travelling with a ticket.[3]
What is rarely mentioned is the increasing crimes committed against refugees in refugee camps. In germany, there were 1,029 attacks against refugee residences in 2015, following 199 in 2014. Attacks on refugees increase the crime rate themselves.
[1]-https://www.bra.se/bra/bra-in-english/home/crime-and-statistics/rape-and-sex-offences.html https://www.bra.se/bra/bra-in-english/home/crime-and-statist...
[2]-(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_and_crime#United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_and_crime#United_S...).
[3]-https://www.thelocal.de/20151113/police-refugees-commit-less-crimes-than-germans/ https://www.thelocal.de/20151113/police-refugees-commit-less...
- Sacho 10y agoThank you for the actual statistics; can you provide a source for the legislative change? I found sources for 2005 and 2008 changes, but not one for 2013. There's also one particular thing that doesn't pass the smell test for me from your German article: "Less than 1 percent of the total crimes committed by refugees are sex crimes, going against rumours spread on social media that these have become more common with the arrival of hundreds of thousands of refugees." 1% doesn't strike me as a very low percentage of sex crimes, but I googled around for some statistics, and found another article from the same source - https://www.thelocal.de/20160218/refugees-to-germany-commit-tiny-proportion-of-sex-crimes https://www.thelocal.de/20160218/refugees-to-germany-commit-... Here, the title is that "refugees commit less crime than Germans". However, the stats they quote show otherwise - despite refugees being anywhere from 0.8 to 2%, they committed at least 4% of the sex crimes in the country - a factor of at least 2. The article itself says that the sexual assaults reported during the New Year's Eve were not part of this number, so this is a conservative estimate. The article quotes a ratio of 2:1 men over women as a mitigating factor, however, doing the math most favorably towards refugees(100% of sexual assaults committed by men, 40/60 split in men/women in Germany) leaves you with an adjusted rate of ~2.6% of crimes, still significantly higher than their proportionate population. From that article though I was able to acquire this statistic for 2015: "The total number of this type of crime committed nationwide throughout 2015 was almost 47,000" From here - https://www.osac.gov/pages/ContentReportDetails.aspx?cid=17094 https://www.osac.gov/pages/ContentReportDetails.aspx?cid=170... - I found that the total criminal offenses in germany were close to ~6mil. From this you can calculate the rate of sexual assault for the german population - 47k / 6mil ~ 0.8%. It's not as significantly different from the previous number, but still doesn't support the claim that, at 1%, refugees commit less sexual crimes than the german population. EDIT: There is also a mitigating factor I just thought of that the newspaper didn't mention; refugees are likely to have a poor economic status in Germany, and are thus more likely to commit crimes for that factor alone. I don't know how to calculate for that as well.
- qofcourse 10y agoLong story short: "Islamic rape is no problem" is fake news.
- sctb 10y agoWe need users to comment civilly and substantively, especially on controversial subjects. This just doesn't pass muster. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- edmccard 10y ago>>"Less than 1 percent of the total crimes committed by refugees are sex crimes" That seems to mean something different than "less than 1 percent of total sex crimes are committed by refugees".
- etatoby 10y agoPrecisely. These articles are full of Bayesian conceptual mistakes like this. It's going to be hard to prove anything without the source figures.
- rndgermandude 10y agoThe original German article quoting the actual internal police paper is very clear that out of the "very low six digit figure" of total crimes committed by refugees, less than 1% of those "refugee crimes" were sex crimes. It does not in any way state the what chunk out of the total sex crimes were committed by refugees, indeed.
- rndgermandude 10y agoI figured the same (the original Welt article thelocal.de quotes does not even say "refugees commit less crime than Germans" btw). So, "less than 1%" of the "very low six figure" number of total crimes committed by refugees are sex crimes. Ok then, so let's conservatively say it's 100,000 * 0.009 = 900 sex crimes (not sure about what time range that even covers? 1 year? First 9 months in 2015 since the report was compiled in Oct 2016). There have been 7022 sex crimes (reported) in 2015[1], total. Using that, the conservative estimate for sex crimes committed by refugees of the total sex crimes committed is: 900 / 7022 = 12.8% Let's assume (and grossly overestimate really) there were about 1.5 million refugees total in (the end of) 2015 and a total population of 81 million. So 1.8% of the population was refugees, yet that cohort committed 12% of sex crimes. But 900 / 1.5M refugees is a at most 0.06% of refugees (not even considering multiple offenders) who commit sex crimes, compared to the total population rate of 7022 / 81M = 0.009% Downplaying the issue is not helpful. On the other hand, it's not helpful either but actually dangerous to rubberstamp all refugees as sex offenders when only at most 0.06% of them committed a sex crime in 2015. As pointed out already, there are many mitigating factors to put this into context. [1] http://www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/Broschueren/2016/pks-2015.pdf http://www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/Broschueren/2...
- leereeves 10y ago> In Germany, refugees are less likely to commit a crime than the average citizen Meanwhile in Sweden: > According to the most recent study, people from foreign backgrounds are 2.5 times more likely to be suspected of crimes than people born in Sweden to Swedish-born parents.
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- 8draco8 10y agoCan you share the source?
- leereeves 10y agoFacts about migration and crime in Sweden from the Swedish government. http://www.government.se/articles/2017/02/facts-about-migration-and-crime-in-sweden/ http://www.government.se/articles/2017/02/facts-about-migrat...
- sgift 10y agoFirst quote: "commit" vs Second quote: "suspected of crimes" Two completely different things.
- qofcourse 10y agoWhen the Swedish government doesn't actually prosecute the crimes, it's easy to skew the statistics in the Islamic rapists' favor.
- leereeves 10y ago"Commit" should be clarified. We don't know who actually committed a crime. That should probably be either "arrested for" or "convicted of". "Suspected of" probably means "arrested for", but there too, the author has chosen a word that's unclear.
- 10y ago
- polack 10y agoIt's totally irrelevant that the crimes has decreased. The point is that a majority of all violence and sexual crimes is performed by immigrants (as confirmed by Sweden's most famous crime professor GW a couple of days ago). Why are you so afraid to see that immigrants are over represented in this category of crimes?
- laxentasken 10y agoBecause politics, really.
- Svenskunganka 10y agoLeif GW Persson, who the above commenter is talking about clarified this on TV just a couple of days ago. The segment starts 18 minutes in and is in Swedish: http://www.svtplay.se/video/12505960/veckans-brott/veckans-brott-sasong-14-avsnitt-7?start=auto http://www.svtplay.se/video/12505960/veckans-brott/veckans-b... (hoping there is no region blocking...)
- mercer 10y agoWould you mind giving a quick summary of the video? I'm somewhat challenged in the 'understanding Swedish' department.
- Shalle135 10y agoGood to know though is what GW is famous for. Being an infamous alcoholic.
- ra1n85 10y agoHow is this relevant to the discussion? It's almost as if you seek to undermine his argument by pointing out that he has an addiction. Why would you do that? Are you scared of what he thinks and says?
- cancancan 10y agoThat's just an ad hominem. Try addressing his arguments instead of his lifestyle.
- oligopoly 10y agoMost of the crimes in Sweden is done by immigrants. Sweden is the rape capital of Europe. It's creepy to see this kind of behaviour condoned and labeled as nothing. Sweden: Rape Capital of the West https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/5195/sweden-rape https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/5195/sweden-rape Everything is factual in that statement but seems to burst some peoples bubble.
- Entalpi 10y agoThis my friends is propaganda.
- oligopoly 10y agoExcuse me? Downplaying migrant rape and crimes is propaganda.
- cromulent 10y agoThe original chart used in the report you reference comes with cautions in interpreting Sweden's position, which do not seem to have been heeded by the authors of the report. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rape_statistics#Sweden https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rape_statistics#Sweden
- matthewmacleod 10y agoYou are deliberately lying and citing well-known unreliable sources. Why are you doing this? Are you trying to push some pre-concieved agenda? I genuinely don't understand.
- oligopoly 10y agoUN rape statistics is unreliable source? It's creepy how lot of people downplay rape in this thread.
- cromulent 10y agoThe source itself says that it is is unreliable :) "Please note that when using the figures, any cross-national comparisons should be conducted with caution because of the differences that exist between the legal definitions of offences in countries, or the different methods of offence counting and recording." http://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/statistics/crime/CTS2013_SexualViolence.xls http://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/statistics/...
- facepalm 10y agoDoesn't the claim about refugees in Germany use the same trick the Swedish Government uses? There are fewer refugees than native Germans, so even if the absolute number of crimes conducted by Germans would be higher than the absolute number of crimes by refugees, it doesn't say anything about the prevalence of crime in the populations. For example, if you have 100 "native" Germans and 10 refugees, and there were 3 German criminals and 1 refugee criminal, 10% of refugees would be criminals, but only 3% of Germans, even though more Germans than refugees would be criminals.
- vowelless 10y ago> The refugee crisis began around 2014, and since then, the rates for sexual violence went down in 2015[1] Based on your link, it seems clear that the rates went up in 2015 (unless I am grossly misreading that graph). For 2014 it was a little less than 2%. For 2015 it is more than 3%.
- otalp 10y agoYou're presumably reading the graph of the % of population polled every year who say "they've been exposed to sex offences"(not necessarily in that specific year), not the actual yearly crime rates, which are lower down and which state: "In 2015, a total of 18,100 sex offences were reported; this is an 11 per cent decrease as compared with 2014. The number of rapes reported to police decreased by 12 per cent to 5,920 between 2014 and 2015. Reported offences regarding sexual molestation and sexual coercion, exploitation etc. also decreased to 8,840 (-8 %) and 1,430 (-6 %) respectively. "
- draugadrotten 10y ago> According to the official statistics on The Swedish Crime Survey, the sexual violence rate in Sweden remained about the same between 2005 and 2014 Why picking the period 2005 to 2014? Immigration started 1960s and increased a lot 2014-2016. It would make a lot more sense to look at the sexual violence rate 1960-2016. Do you dare?
- chappi42 10y agoI don't know. Maybe HN should refrain from this subject. Never trust any statistics that you didn't... - Believe this or go with the anecdotal real-world experience from a cop, linked below, Peter Springare, see e.g. http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/764574/Political-Sweden-chaos-police-officer-migrants-blame-serious-crime http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/764574/Political-Sweden-.... Never read about it in 'good' newspaper before. So who knows? The politic is under much pressure to tell the 'right' things now. I just wish they would just tell the delicate numbers, e.g. ethnical, religious, economic, <whatever> background of inmates, terror, crime. And allow to talk about it freely. We now are a data driven society, why not here? Why afraid? Why not give (collect) the full data? (I browsed around a bit, but I think I would need more detailed raw data to say something)
- cik2e 10y agoIt seems that the main point of contention is whether migrants are more or less likely to commit crimes (in Sweden). This article doesn't answer this question at all for us. The following is the one remotely relevant statistic: >> People from foreign backgrounds are suspected of crimes more often than people from a Swedish background. According to the most recent study, people from foreign backgrounds are 2.5 times more likely to be suspected of crimes than people born in Sweden to Swedish-born parents. And even this isn't really what we're looking for because accusations != convictions. One can easily postulate that foreigners would have higher chances of being falsely accused, and factors like this have to be accounted for in the analysis. The only factual evidence that we have to go on so far is otalp's reference to a study that showed German refugees are less likely to commit crimes than the average citizen. Sadly, in this kind of argument, facts rarely matter and will likely not change erroneous views.
- gjjrfcbugxbhf 10y agoThere's lies, damn lies, statistics and biased people interpreting statistics... 2014 is a funny time to end the analysis... We are in 2017.
- pharrington 10y agoTo me it seems the obvious problem is that the socio-economic dynamical system called Sweden doesn't know how to integrate foreigners. The core problem has nothing to do with the migrant crisis or Muslim cultures. The solution definitely requires a serious examination of the current migrant crisis and Muslim cultures.