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Uh oh. The "great filter" hypothesis is essentially that the rarity of intelligent life has to be explained by some parameter of the Drake equation, and that w

Uh oh. The "great filter" hypothesis is essentially that the rarity of intelligent life has to be explained by some parameter of the Drake equation, and that whatever the "small" parameter is is either in our past or in our future. If the "great filter" is the rarity of habitable worlds, then clearly we don't need to fear it, since we already found one. But if habitable worlds aren't rare, then it's more likely it lies in our future (e.g. global thermonuclear war, plague, difficulty of space travel, etc). Thus things like discovery of exoplanets, bacteria on mars, etc should make us rather concerned. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter

deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
root_axis 10y ago
The theory as described in your link seems to hand-wave away the difficulties incumbent in the "colonization explosion" step. As it stands, intergalactic space travel (at scale) is utterly inconceivable in practical terms, and to simply assume that it is inevitable seems like a major flaw in the theory.
- idbehold 10y ago
  > then it's more likely it lies in our future (e.g. global thermonuclear war, plague, difficulty of space travel, etc) Difficulty of space travel is one of the possible filters.
  - root_axis 10y ago
    Ah. I guess I was responding to > the only thing that appears likely to keep us from [colonization explosion] is some sort of catastrophe or resource exhaustion leading to the impossibility of making the step due to consumption of the available resources (like for example highly constrained energy resources).
- svachalek 10y ago
  Actually, the article explicitly calls out that step as one potential "great filter". It also (click the link) lists the theoretical ways it could be accomplished. It seems to leave out the Von Neumann Probe: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_spacecraft https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_spacecraft This is not exactly colonization but possibly an easier step. Either way, the point is that if either we or our machines can get to another star system and repeat the process from there, exponential growth means it pretty much doesn't even matter how long it takes. In astronomical time, we'd cover the galaxy in the blink of an eye.
pshposh 10y ago
But what if we are the first and no filter exists at all?
- idbehold 10y ago
  That's almost equally depressing. "Really, we're the best the universe has to offer?"
  - logfromblammo 10y ago
    That's not depressing. It gives us a moral imperative to transplant Earth-origin life onto every somewhat concentrated mass that we can reach. Then we can wait a few billion years, and the universe will likely have generated a superior successor species which can then re-seed over everything we had previously tilled, and then some. And they'll all be rubber-forehead aliens to one another, because they'll be billionth cousins, a few million times removed.
    - idbehold 10y ago
      > It gives us a moral imperative to transplant Earth-origin life onto every somewhat concentrated mass that we can reach. And in the very likely scenario that we are never able to "reach" outside our solar system... Then what?
      - dragonwriter 10y ago
        > And in the very likely scenario that we are never able to "reach" outside our solar system... Then what? Then we need to prepare for the Gliese 710 arrival over the next million and change years. [0] [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gliese_710 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gliese_710
      - logfromblammo 10y ago
        Then we will either be literally extinct or at least economically extinct--permanently unable to recover space-launch technology. Then Earth has to gin up another dominant species capable of reaching the stars with whatever time it may have remaining. We already have the technology to reach outside the solar system. It launched in 1977. We will have the capability to transplant microorganisms to extrasolar planets long before moving humans that may have 100kg or more to one. Which is good, because it may take a while for the algae to get established anyway. And if for some reason higher species never show up, that celestial object won't have to overcome the steep initial hurdle of abiogenesis.
joeyspn 10y ago
The "Transcension Hypothesis" is a possible solution to the Fermi Paradox... http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094576511003304 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094576511...
- ionwake 10y ago
  Great link, thanks. Cant help but be reminded of the premise of the Halo games, and the objectives of the alien race.

deleted 10y ago

[deleted]

root_axis 10y ago

The theory as described in your link seems to hand-wave away the difficulties incumbent in the "colonization explosion" step. As it stands, intergalactic space travel (at scale) is utterly inconceivable in practical terms, and to simply assume that it is inevitable seems like a major flaw in the theory.

idbehold 10y ago
> then it's more likely it lies in our future (e.g. global thermonuclear war, plague, difficulty of space travel, etc) Difficulty of space travel is one of the possible filters.
- root_axis 10y ago
  Ah. I guess I was responding to > the only thing that appears likely to keep us from [colonization explosion] is some sort of catastrophe or resource exhaustion leading to the impossibility of making the step due to consumption of the available resources (like for example highly constrained energy resources).
svachalek 10y ago
Actually, the article explicitly calls out that step as one potential "great filter". It also (click the link) lists the theoretical ways it could be accomplished. It seems to leave out the Von Neumann Probe: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_spacecraft https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_spacecraft This is not exactly colonization but possibly an easier step. Either way, the point is that if either we or our machines can get to another star system and repeat the process from there, exponential growth means it pretty much doesn't even matter how long it takes. In astronomical time, we'd cover the galaxy in the blink of an eye.

pshposh 10y ago

But what if we are the first and no filter exists at all?

idbehold 10y ago
That's almost equally depressing. "Really, we're the best the universe has to offer?"
- logfromblammo 10y ago
  That's not depressing. It gives us a moral imperative to transplant Earth-origin life onto every somewhat concentrated mass that we can reach. Then we can wait a few billion years, and the universe will likely have generated a superior successor species which can then re-seed over everything we had previously tilled, and then some. And they'll all be rubber-forehead aliens to one another, because they'll be billionth cousins, a few million times removed.
  - idbehold 10y ago
    > It gives us a moral imperative to transplant Earth-origin life onto every somewhat concentrated mass that we can reach. And in the very likely scenario that we are never able to "reach" outside our solar system... Then what?
    - dragonwriter 10y ago
      > And in the very likely scenario that we are never able to "reach" outside our solar system... Then what? Then we need to prepare for the Gliese 710 arrival over the next million and change years. [0] [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gliese_710 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gliese_710
    - logfromblammo 10y ago
      Then we will either be literally extinct or at least economically extinct--permanently unable to recover space-launch technology. Then Earth has to gin up another dominant species capable of reaching the stars with whatever time it may have remaining. We already have the technology to reach outside the solar system. It launched in 1977. We will have the capability to transplant microorganisms to extrasolar planets long before moving humans that may have 100kg or more to one. Which is good, because it may take a while for the algae to get established anyway. And if for some reason higher species never show up, that celestial object won't have to overcome the steep initial hurdle of abiogenesis.

joeyspn 10y ago

The "Transcension Hypothesis" is a possible solution to the Fermi Paradox... http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094576511003304 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094576511...

ionwake 10y ago
Great link, thanks. Cant help but be reminded of the premise of the Halo games, and the objectives of the alien race.