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A "fact" is just a statement with a probability distribution attached to it. If your prior is different than someone else's, your posterior is going to be diff
by throwaway713 10y ago
A "fact" is just a statement with a probability distribution attached to it. If your prior is different than someone else's, your posterior is going to be different as well.
- jstimpfle 10y agoTrue, but how arbitrary are probability distributions for topics like homeopathy, 9/11 Truth, Young earth creationism? Spend a few hours investigating "facts" and arguments on all sides and smell where the bullshit is.
- freen 10y agoWhat about the probability distribution of the fact that you are a carrot?
- throwaway713 10y agoThere's still a probability distribution — it's just a very tightly peaked one that for all practical purposes is indistinguishable from a Dirac delta distribution. Generally speaking, the physical sciences produce highly peaked distributions (literally, in the case of particle physics) and the social sciences produce more of what I would call flat lines with a few lumps in them. That includes most political "facts". Quantitative accuracy requires extremely high quality data and statistical inference, which when applied to social issues is impractical for the foreseeable future.
- freen 10y agoExcellent. We have established that you are, in fact a carrot. I propose we roast you with some honey. Your strenuous disagreement is a clear indication that you are intolerant of alternative viewpoints.