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>The gigantic wall of AI/Automation is unavoidable Well, we've had the automated IT-based office for decades and the cries of everyone losing their jobs didn't
by drzaiusapelord 10y ago
>The gigantic wall of AI/Automation is unavoidable
Well, we've had the automated IT-based office for decades and the cries of everyone losing their jobs didn't really happen, not the paperless office.
I certainly see AI changing things, but these hysterical futurist articles tend to lean more pie-in-the-sky techies than managerial types. Managers and executives know that employment, today, is a mostly a fiction. A lot of what drives employment could be automated right now, but isn't for political reasons. Not the least of which is internal company politics on having as many direct reports under you as the threat of becoming a 'small' department means becoming eliminated by outsourcing or in-sourced/absorbed by another department or simply a loss of prestige. The idea that employment numbers are purely meritoriousness is fairly questionable. Its bureaucratic and political primarily.
The larger issue is, how much will this change things from the norm from a reasonable perspective. We can't automate most things and that probably means a certain class of jobs will be threatened but most will be fine. So even if that doubles or triples unemployment, that means we have unemployment rates closer to European economies or perhaps higher, but still doable without a radical restructuring of our economy. The futurist dream of 100% unemployment in ten years and everyone on UBI simply isn't happening.
My worry is that we'd probably need a very liberal government to handle this as it will put it quite the load on welfare, but currently the US has a radical conservative administration as well as a conservative congress, which means the political fight to raise taxes and expand welfare for displaced workers is going to be tough or impossible. The problem is that angry voters put in isolationists and those who they perceive have and can build wealth, but those types of people are often very anti-social services and very anti-welfare. So the voters took a big gamble. They think the Trump admin will 'fix' jobs. Jobs that are destined to go away. But if he fails, and he probably will, then they will lack the social safety net to fall back on. Those in vulnerable industries, often in rural and less urbanized communities, simply voted the wrong way and most likely will be punished economically for it.
- tonyedgecombe 10y ago"Well, we've had the automated IT-based office for decades and the cries of everyone losing their jobs didn't really happen, not the paperless office." I'm sure I read in the economist that the number of people doing office work has been falling for some time.
- drzaiusapelord 10y agoRight, but the USA has a 4.7 unemployment rate, which is one of the lowest in the world and a far cry from the 100% unemployment futurists keep claiming will happen 'any year now.' Jobs continue to exist, continue to be created, etc. This stuff is a lot more complex than "automation will eat jobs." If anything, automation has created vastly more jobs than anyone thought possible due to a variety of factors not the least of which is a shift to IT/technical trades, service-based trades, and the massive amount of human power you need to run a competitive bureaucracy to run those factories and services. Then all that excess money from 'decent' jobs goes towards more goods and services that otherwise wouldn't be possible. I mean, people casually blow $300+ on a robot vacuum cleaner or $600+ on a phone. And now you have more jobs in industries no one predicted possible 30 years ago and so on. Not to mention, generally, the more competitive the industry the most staffing it needs. I'm sure there's some rule named after someone about this, but hot industries go on hiring sprees and when your economy is as innovative and wealthy as the US's that translates into a high demand for qualified candidates. That offsets a lot of job loss in dying sectors.
- graedus 10y ago> Right, but the USA has a 4.7 unemployment rate When talking about the headline unemployment rate, it's a good idea to view this seemingly rosy figure in the context of our current ~40 year lows in the labor force participation rate[0]. It's misleading to look at one without the other, IMO. [0] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
- baursak 10y agoAnd a record level incarceration rate.
- drzaiusapelord 10y agoand record lows in crime. I don't see this as a problem.