See the part about "miracles": a black swan event doesn't mean that it's repeatable. I'm aware of such incidents - there's https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gimli_G

See the part about "miracles": a black swan event doesn't mean that it's repeatable. I'm aware of such incidents - there's https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gimli_Glider https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gimli_Glider , there's https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Airways_Flight_9 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Airways_Flight_9 , there's https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US_Airways_Flight_1549 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US_Airways_Flight_1549 - each of which is a case of great skill and great luck combined: nothing that could be adopted as standard operating procedures. Your argument is "look, people have won the lottery before, therefore it's a good idea" - an improbable happyend captures attention far more than the usual outcome of the accident lottery, which is something like this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Airlines_Flight_191 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Airlines_Flight_191