Is it me, or does this seem like a biological version of the gamblers ruin problem? http://mathworld.wolfram.com/GamblersRuin.html http://mathworld.wolfram.com

Is it me, or does this seem like a biological version of the gamblers ruin problem? http://mathworld.wolfram.com/GamblersRuin.html http://mathworld.wolfram.com/GamblersRuin.html