4 ms·
An incorrect prediction is not a falsehood.
by guelo 10y ago
An incorrect prediction is not a falsehood.
- paulddraper 10y agoIt's partially false. If I say there's a 99% of a meteor strike, and it doesn't happen, I'm 99% incorrect.
- schoen 10y agoIs this possibly a form of Bayesian vs. frequentist debate? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_interpretations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_interpretations
- jhbadger 10y agoNo, you aren't -- you may have a perfect model of meteor strikes for all I know, and the 1% miss is exactly accurate. That's how statistical models work, whether of meteors or elections. Of course, if you say there's a 99% chance again and again and they are all misses, people rightfully have a case to doubt your model.