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You are 2.5% confident that something is going on that the parent poster doesn't know about? While I applaud your willingness to bet, your first 2 sentences ind
by nickff 10y ago
You are 2.5% confident that something is going on that the parent poster doesn't know about? While I applaud your willingness to bet, your first 2 sentences indicate much more confidence than your proposed odds.
- late2part 10y agoI think the odds in my proposition give me sufficient edge to proffer the bet.
- nickff 10y agoBut you implied there was a 97.5% chance that the parent was right. You basically agreed with the previous post, while saying they were wrong.
- late2part 10y agoI didn't agree. He said it would not. I said it could. I said it was more likely than he said and I would put money on it. Your use of basically is ambiguous.
- nickff 10y agoIf I say there is a 97.5% chance that the parent was correct, am I more agreeing or disagreeing? WEP standard says that anything above 94% is "almost certain", so you 'basically' said that it was "almost certain" the parent was correct.[1] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Words_of_estimative_probability https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Words_of_estimative_probabilit...
- late2part 10y agoThese words you are putting in my mouth don't fit. 97.5% probability is nothing like almost certain. I think we just have different viewpoints on precision and language, friend. I still like you!