4 ms·
How about a wager? My first wager is that you're not in a position to know if it's being discussed. My second wager is that it happens. For starters I'll bet
by late2part 10y ago
How about a wager?
My first wager is that you're not in a position to know if it's being discussed.
My second wager is that it happens. For starters I'll bet you $100 with 40:1 odds that it does happen. Happen defined as "Both parties announce intentions to merger/acquire within 6 months from today."
- sokoloff 10y agoAre you laying or taking the 40:1. If you're laying the 40:1, I'm in, of course!
- late2part 10y agoI get $4k if it does, I pay $100 if it doesn't (by 6 months end).
- simonebrunozzi 10y agoI'm wondering what's the easiest, legal (for US residents) way to sign this type of bet. No, I'm not referring to complex steps involving some form of cryptocurrencies. I'm talking about something super, super easy. p.s. I am happy to take the bet at 1:2, not at 1:40.
- nickff 10y agoYou are 2.5% confident that something is going on that the parent poster doesn't know about? While I applaud your willingness to bet, your first 2 sentences indicate much more confidence than your proposed odds.
- late2part 10y agoI think the odds in my proposition give me sufficient edge to proffer the bet.
- nickff 10y agoBut you implied there was a 97.5% chance that the parent was right. You basically agreed with the previous post, while saying they were wrong.
- late2part 10y agoI didn't agree. He said it would not. I said it could. I said it was more likely than he said and I would put money on it. Your use of basically is ambiguous.
- nickff 10y agoIf I say there is a 97.5% chance that the parent was correct, am I more agreeing or disagreeing? WEP standard says that anything above 94% is "almost certain", so you 'basically' said that it was "almost certain" the parent was correct.[1] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Words_of_estimative_probability https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Words_of_estimative_probabilit...
- late2part 10y agoThese words you are putting in my mouth don't fit. 97.5% probability is nothing like almost certain. I think we just have different viewpoints on precision and language, friend. I still like you!