Well, you would still have certain data points to make a decision from. If you've been part of an industry for a while you'll start understanding it. Second, i

Well, you would still have certain data points to make a decision from. If you've been part of an industry for a while you'll start understanding it. Second, if you already have a ton of money, you might take on the additional risk to get 2x instead of 1x. Say you have $20mm in the bank, generating 10% a year, then getting a $10mm payout instead of a $5mm is probably worth it, since an extra $5mm won't change your life. If however, you have $100k in the bank, then you should probably take the $5mm.