> is the probability vanishingly close to 2? It is. Here's how it clicked for me: Forget about Thursday; someone tells you "I have two kids, at least one of

> is the probability vanishingly close to 2? It is. Here's how it clicked for me: Forget about Thursday; someone tells you "I have two kids, at least one of which is a boy who is special". Now you get these cases for the two children: Bg, gB, Bb, bB, BB (where g is a girl, b is a boy, B is a special boy). Without the last case (two special boys), everything is symmetrical, and the probability that the second child is a boy is 1/2. The less likely it is that the guy has two special boys, the closer the answer is to 1/2. This also means that the everyday answer is actually 1/3, because parents always think that all of their children are special, so the problem reverts to the simple Two Children Problem with the equally likely cases BG, GB, and BB (yes, the girls are special, too).