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You were probably annoyed before you've read the whole article, like I was at that moment. But it goes on: "Not so fast, says probabilist Yuval Peres of Micros
by acqq 10y ago
You were probably annoyed before you've read the whole article, like I was at that moment. But it goes on:
"Not so fast, says probabilist Yuval Peres of Microsoft Research. That naïve answer of 1/2? In real life, he says, that will usually be the most reasonable one."
"If I specifically selected him because he was a boy born on Tuesday (and if I would have kept quiet had neither of my children qualified), then the 13/27 probability is correct. But if I randomly chose one of my two children to describe and then reported the child’s sex and birthday, and he just happened to be a boy born on Tuesday," "the probability that the other child will be a boy will indeed be 1/2."
- kpil 10y agoWell I got annoyed a little bit further down when they started to coalesce events arbitrarily, and stopped reading.... I probably don't understand why it's meaningful or even valid to do that though... On the other hand, I spent a rather sad year reading statistics because I thought it was interesting, and got so bored that I got a job as a developer instead, so I am rather confident that it's not for me to truly understand...
- gpawl 10y agoSadly, many people will skim the article, including the incorrect first half, and come away from the article with increased misunderstanding.