My prediction is that VR will teach us absolutely critical things about human computer interaction, and that some people will literally live in their headsets,

My prediction is that VR will teach us absolutely critical things about human computer interaction, and that some people will literally live in their headsets, but that a large group of people will almost never use them, and phones will continue to be the dominant computing platform. My reasoning is this: imagine the perfect phone VR viewer. It would be something like a much improved Google Tango. You hold your phone, and it is a true 3d view into virtual reality, the refresh rate is 90hz, and tracking is perfect. It literally just looks and feels like a little window into VR. Like opera glasses. And in fact, if you watch people using VR for the first time, many people try to keep a hand on the headset. I wonder if there is some deep desire there, to maintain separate control of your viewpoint and the line where the virtual and physical intersect. I suspect that in the long term, many people will be happy to watch what's happening in VR from a bit of a distance. And big downside a headset has is transition cost. You can text me a VR link, and I can put down my french fry, pull phone phone out of my pocket, hold it near my face, and look around. With a headset, I need to get it out of my bag, strap it on, adjust it, etc. And that's assuming full mobility. The other consideration is that we've already fairly carefully titrated our interest in realism vs abstraction as a society. People still read books, people still watch cartoons. These are not seen as lesser artistic experiences than a gritty realistic film. They are just different. VR will be the same, some works will be amenable to immersion, but people will still keep writing novels and cartoons and VR will be a niche too, to the extent cartoons are a niche. I think there is also a gap forming between the "anything is possible" crowd and the "no, common sense is real, men are men, dirt is dirt, god is god" movement. Public spaces in VR will look pretty unappealing to the latter. VR will be a godsend to trans people of all stripes, but not everyone wants to transition somewhere.