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Much of what he was talking about in 2014 has come true now. If we see the same rate of progress VR will actually be in a pretty good spot to be successful in
by Impossible 10y ago
Much of what he was talking about in 2014 has come true now. If we see the same rate of progress VR will actually be in a pretty good spot to be successful in 2020. Many of the complaints about VR now are solvable problems, specifically:
- It's too bulky or uncomfortable
- It's too expensive
- There isn't enough good content
- There aren't any killer apps
- Resolution is too low (and relative optics, screen quality and FOV issues)
- Its not wireless
All of these problems are actively being worked on. I'd argue that there is core tech missing from the current round of VR headsets that will come later and enable exciting applications.
My future concerns with the VR market are consumer perception, which might cause people to reject VR or AR even if a killer device with a killer app comes to market, and the larger existential issue of people will never want to interact with software in 3D space, and something about 2D (or text, or speech\audio) is inherently more convenient or easier to grasp. The former issue can be solved by good marketing, word of mouth, but the later can't.
On HN the most commonly mentioned "killer app" for VR is infinite 2D screens, which is one of the most boring and unimaginative thing you can do with VR. AR "killer apps" tend to be equally boring, floating notifications and maps. Occasionally people mention telepresence, but its largely still straightforward applications like live event streaming or teleconferencing.
A high quality AR\VR device with the proper infrastructure could essentially give people limited super powers, think time travel, teleportation, conjuring\illusion, being in multiply places at the same time, reality remix, etc.