4 ms·
As a meteorologist, let me offer this apology on behalf of my field: Predicting rainfall is really hard, especially in a particular location. Unlike dynamic var
by labster 10y ago
As a meteorologist, let me offer this apology on behalf of my field: Predicting rainfall is really hard, especially in a particular location. Unlike dynamic variables like temp, pressure, or wind velocity, rainfall depends on just about every term, including sub-grid scale topography. We can have a good idea of how much total water a storm has to be precipitated, but when, where and how it falls is harder.
- irrational 10y agoYeah, recently they predicted we'd get about 2-3 inches of snow in Portland, OR. We ended up getting approximately 11-12 inches.
- foota 10y agoAre you familiar with this blog? http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/ http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/ it's run by a UW meteorologist.
- irrational 10y agoNo, never heard of it. Thanks!
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- lisper 10y agoFWIW, predictions in my neck of the woods (the SF peninsula) are uncannily accurate. Rain is usually predicted with high reliability a week in advance, and we can generally rely on the hour-by-hour predictions a day or two ahead. I realize that our location is particularly easy to predict because of how our weather is dominated by the Pacific ocean, but you've got to take your wins where you can find them.
- labster 10y agoMost of what you said is the opposite of what the science shows. SF is particularly hard to forecast because its weather is dominated by the Pacific Ocean (in winter at least). In other places we get reasonably reliable 10 day forecasts, but because initial data (observations) are sparse over the ocean, we have less confidence in the forecast here, long range forecasts are less likely to verify. Satellites do help, but it's not like there's a vast network of Doppler radar buoys out there y'know? Anyway, we've gotten good at this despite the ocean, not because of it. We've gotten a lot better on timing with better satellite data. But so far as precip amounts, and type? Let's just say it is not the exact science we want it to be.
- lisper 10y agoWhat can I say? Our forecasts on the peninsula are accurate >90% of the time.
- jcoffland 10y agoThat depends a lot on what you consider accurate. It would also be correct to say that forecasts in the Bay Area are wrong 100% of the time.
- Baeocystin 10y agoFWIW, I've lived all over the world, and now the bay area. And I am consistently impressed with how good the weather predictions are for the area. So thank you for the hard work. I know I'm impressed.
- lucaspiller 10y agoI've already wondered how meteorology works in terms of computer models. Could you recommend some reading material that would be a good introduction for someone completely new to the field? Now we have powerful computers and lots of data freely available (well maybe less now thanks to Trump), I've always dreamed of running an old computer model say from the 1980s at home.