The underlying issue appears to be that prediction systems do not take into account recent changes. Which is common sense, a prediction system is going to lag.

The underlying issue appears to be that prediction systems do not take into account recent changes. Which is common sense, a prediction system is going to lag. It makes a cute fluff article about the value of beat reporters when dealing with baseball stats. It can destroy lives when it comes to predicting if a person will default on a loan or is likely to re-offend.