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Except that all the numbers on his net worth are based just on his word and he's clearly a serial liar. Interestingly, I think the fact that he's quite stupid

Except that all the numbers on his net worth are based just on his word and he's clearly a serial liar. Interestingly, I think the fact that he's quite stupid may be how he succeeded at the presidential election. An intelligent, principled person would have a vision and philosophy that guides their actions. When questioned on details or specifics they would use their philosophy to arrive at a reasoned answer. Trump has essentially no record of this. He has no governing philosophy or sophisticated understanding of how the world works. He seems to do nothing but say what he feels in that moment -- even if how he feels isn't backed up by any reality. However, in certain election environments that can also be a huge benefit. If the electorate is looking for a foil, someone to reflect their feelings, and the electorate itself isn't acting on calculated reasoning, the dunce with an acute sense of emotional environment is the perfect avatar. In a sense, the reasoned candidate is at an inherent disadvantage since they will attempt to articulate a particular philosophy. If the electorate is mostly a coalition based on shared emotional reaction, stating a clear philosophy can do nothing but weaken support among your own constituency. In essence, being specific allows people to disagree with you. If you hand wave, they just imagine you think like they do, since they already think you feel like they do. I can think of another group of people who a similar skillset: confidence artists. They're often not very bright or very skilled, but they are good at reading a room, a person, and an emotion. Interestingly, I don't believe Trump believes himself to be a con-artist; he's just a natural.

imron 10y ago
> Except that all the numbers on his net worth are based just on his word and he's clearly a serial liar. No they're not, the link I provided also showed figures based on Forbes estimate of his net worth. $40,000,000 (Trump's share of his father's fortune) invested in the market in 1974 would be worth $1.22 billion in 2015 (when he announced his campaign). Compared to Forbes estimate of his net worth at $4.5 billion and Trump's own estimate of his net worth at $10.0 billion at the same date. Both beat the market handily and in fact Forbes could have overestimated his fortune by triple the amount and Trump would still be ahead. > An intelligent, principled person Again, I'm not talking about principled, I'm making the argument purely that Trump is intelligent. Not whether he is principled, or a good person, or a good businessman or even if he's a good president. > He has no governing philosophy I don't know about that. From what I can tell, he seems to consistently follow the same or similar playbook outlined in 'The Art of the Deal'.
- xapata 10y ago
  > Art of the Deal The ghostwriter of that book says he made the whole thing up, because Trump got bored so quickly he wouldn't sit for an interview longer than 10 minutes.
  - imron 10y ago
    Regardless of whether or not his ghostwriter is telling the truth, Trump didn't need to write it in order to follow the book's advice. If you look at what the book talks about and you see how Trump acts, there are many similarities.
- pg314 10y ago
  > $40,000,000 (Trump's share of his father's fortune) invested in the market in 1974 would be worth $1.22 billion in 2015 (when he announced his campaign). How did you get that number? Did you include re-invested dividends? If you start in October 1974 and end in June 2015, you get a return of 9817.096% with dividends reinvested and only 2923.171% without [1]. So starting with $40 million you would end up closer to $4 billion. Admittedly that is after fiddling with the months to maximise the return. > Compared to Forbes estimate of his net worth at $4.5 billion ... There is a good chance that the $4.5 billion Forbes estimate is a significant overestimation. There is no downside for Forbes to overestimating his fortune, but a significant one in underestimating: they risk getting sued by Trump. See [2], on how he lost a lawsuit in 2006 when a journalist claimed that he was only worth $250 million. It also contains examples of how Trump inflates his net worth. The fact that he still hasn't released his tax returns and has no plans to do so, also speaks volumes. > ...and Trump's own estimate of his net worth at $10.0 billion at the same date. Given his long history of lying his own claim is useless. [1] https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/ https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/ [2] http://www.forbes.com/sites/chasewithorn/2016/03/31/how-donald-trump-exaggerates-and-fibs-about-his-4-5-billion-net-worth/#311e5f30787e http://www.forbes.com/sites/chasewithorn/2016/03/31/how-dona...
  - imron 10y ago
    > How did you get that number? Did you include re-invested dividends? From the site I linked to above (which incidentally is the site [1] you linked to in your post). It includes re-invested dividends and also taxes, which were significantly higher in the late 70's and early 80's compared to what they are now. The page I linked to goes through their methodology. You make good points about his net worth, but even if I was to concede that, I believe my main point still stands. He might not be an astute investor, but even if his entire businesses are only worth hundreds of millions, you can't run a company of that size for so long if you "lack intelligence" - even more so if you're building it back up after losing a billion dollars a few decades earlier.
douche 10y ago
The cognitive dissonance is just breathtaking.
- Locke1689 10y ago
  I see no contradiction. You seem to believe that either winning elections or making money are satisfactory demonstrations of intelligence (as meant by IQ, or g). I do not. I would be happy to reconsider if he released a simple IQ test, or even his old SAT scores (assuming he took the SAT).

imron 10y ago

> Except that all the numbers on his net worth are based just on his word and he's clearly a serial liar. No they're not, the link I provided also showed figures based on Forbes estimate of his net worth. $40,000,000 (Trump's share of his father's fortune) invested in the market in 1974 would be worth $1.22 billion in 2015 (when he announced his campaign). Compared to Forbes estimate of his net worth at $4.5 billion and Trump's own estimate of his net worth at $10.0 billion at the same date. Both beat the market handily and in fact Forbes could have overestimated his fortune by triple the amount and Trump would still be ahead. > An intelligent, principled person Again, I'm not talking about principled, I'm making the argument purely that Trump is intelligent. Not whether he is principled, or a good person, or a good businessman or even if he's a good president. > He has no governing philosophy I don't know about that. From what I can tell, he seems to consistently follow the same or similar playbook outlined in 'The Art of the Deal'.

xapata 10y ago
> Art of the Deal The ghostwriter of that book says he made the whole thing up, because Trump got bored so quickly he wouldn't sit for an interview longer than 10 minutes.
- imron 10y ago
  Regardless of whether or not his ghostwriter is telling the truth, Trump didn't need to write it in order to follow the book's advice. If you look at what the book talks about and you see how Trump acts, there are many similarities.
pg314 10y ago
> $40,000,000 (Trump's share of his father's fortune) invested in the market in 1974 would be worth $1.22 billion in 2015 (when he announced his campaign). How did you get that number? Did you include re-invested dividends? If you start in October 1974 and end in June 2015, you get a return of 9817.096% with dividends reinvested and only 2923.171% without [1]. So starting with $40 million you would end up closer to $4 billion. Admittedly that is after fiddling with the months to maximise the return. > Compared to Forbes estimate of his net worth at $4.5 billion ... There is a good chance that the $4.5 billion Forbes estimate is a significant overestimation. There is no downside for Forbes to overestimating his fortune, but a significant one in underestimating: they risk getting sued by Trump. See [2], on how he lost a lawsuit in 2006 when a journalist claimed that he was only worth $250 million. It also contains examples of how Trump inflates his net worth. The fact that he still hasn't released his tax returns and has no plans to do so, also speaks volumes. > ...and Trump's own estimate of his net worth at $10.0 billion at the same date. Given his long history of lying his own claim is useless. [1] https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/ https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/ [2] http://www.forbes.com/sites/chasewithorn/2016/03/31/how-donald-trump-exaggerates-and-fibs-about-his-4-5-billion-net-worth/#311e5f30787e http://www.forbes.com/sites/chasewithorn/2016/03/31/how-dona...
- imron 10y ago
  > How did you get that number? Did you include re-invested dividends? From the site I linked to above (which incidentally is the site [1] you linked to in your post). It includes re-invested dividends and also taxes, which were significantly higher in the late 70's and early 80's compared to what they are now. The page I linked to goes through their methodology. You make good points about his net worth, but even if I was to concede that, I believe my main point still stands. He might not be an astute investor, but even if his entire businesses are only worth hundreds of millions, you can't run a company of that size for so long if you "lack intelligence" - even more so if you're building it back up after losing a billion dollars a few decades earlier.

douche 10y ago

The cognitive dissonance is just breathtaking.

Locke1689 10y ago
I see no contradiction. You seem to believe that either winning elections or making money are satisfactory demonstrations of intelligence (as meant by IQ, or g). I do not. I would be happy to reconsider if he released a simple IQ test, or even his old SAT scores (assuming he took the SAT).