4 ms·

> He took a loan of a few million from his father and turned it in to a billion dollar empire. http://fortune.com/2015/08/20/donald-trump-index-funds/ http://f

> He took a loan of a few million from his father and turned it in to a billion dollar empire. http://fortune.com/2015/08/20/donald-trump-index-funds/ http://fortune.com/2015/08/20/donald-trump-index-funds/ What kind of business genius does it take to lag S&P 500 that badly? If he had done absolutely nothing with his dad's money, except park it in an index fund, he'd be 4 times richer. The article linked also compares the investment performance of Bill Gates and Warren Buffett. You can see quite a big difference.

imron 10y ago
> If he had done absolutely nothing with his dad's money, except park it in an index fund, he'd be 4 times richer. That's actually not correct. He says he got a $1,000,000 loan in 1975. The Fortune article picks a time 13 years after his first loan, and coincidentally at the start of a bull market. I'm not sure how that comparison is valid. See a more thorough analysis here: https://dqydj.com/donald-trump-beat-sp-500-index-funds/ https://dqydj.com/donald-trump-beat-sp-500-index-funds/ Which indicates that if you count from when he started, he did beat the market.
- Locke1689 10y ago
  Except that all the numbers on his net worth are based just on his word and he's clearly a serial liar. Interestingly, I think the fact that he's quite stupid may be how he succeeded at the presidential election. An intelligent, principled person would have a vision and philosophy that guides their actions. When questioned on details or specifics they would use their philosophy to arrive at a reasoned answer. Trump has essentially no record of this. He has no governing philosophy or sophisticated understanding of how the world works. He seems to do nothing but say what he feels in that moment -- even if how he feels isn't backed up by any reality. However, in certain election environments that can also be a huge benefit. If the electorate is looking for a foil, someone to reflect their feelings, and the electorate itself isn't acting on calculated reasoning, the dunce with an acute sense of emotional environment is the perfect avatar. In a sense, the reasoned candidate is at an inherent disadvantage since they will attempt to articulate a particular philosophy. If the electorate is mostly a coalition based on shared emotional reaction, stating a clear philosophy can do nothing but weaken support among your own constituency. In essence, being specific allows people to disagree with you. If you hand wave, they just imagine you think like they do, since they already think you feel like they do. I can think of another group of people who a similar skillset: confidence artists. They're often not very bright or very skilled, but they are good at reading a room, a person, and an emotion. Interestingly, I don't believe Trump believes himself to be a con-artist; he's just a natural.
  - imron 10y ago
    > Except that all the numbers on his net worth are based just on his word and he's clearly a serial liar. No they're not, the link I provided also showed figures based on Forbes estimate of his net worth. $40,000,000 (Trump's share of his father's fortune) invested in the market in 1974 would be worth $1.22 billion in 2015 (when he announced his campaign). Compared to Forbes estimate of his net worth at $4.5 billion and Trump's own estimate of his net worth at $10.0 billion at the same date. Both beat the market handily and in fact Forbes could have overestimated his fortune by triple the amount and Trump would still be ahead. > An intelligent, principled person Again, I'm not talking about principled, I'm making the argument purely that Trump is intelligent. Not whether he is principled, or a good person, or a good businessman or even if he's a good president. > He has no governing philosophy I don't know about that. From what I can tell, he seems to consistently follow the same or similar playbook outlined in 'The Art of the Deal'.
    - xapata 10y ago
      > Art of the Deal The ghostwriter of that book says he made the whole thing up, because Trump got bored so quickly he wouldn't sit for an interview longer than 10 minutes.
      - imron 10y ago
        Regardless of whether or not his ghostwriter is telling the truth, Trump didn't need to write it in order to follow the book's advice. If you look at what the book talks about and you see how Trump acts, there are many similarities.
    - pg314 10y ago
      > $40,000,000 (Trump's share of his father's fortune) invested in the market in 1974 would be worth $1.22 billion in 2015 (when he announced his campaign). How did you get that number? Did you include re-invested dividends? If you start in October 1974 and end in June 2015, you get a return of 9817.096% with dividends reinvested and only 2923.171% without [1]. So starting with $40 million you would end up closer to $4 billion. Admittedly that is after fiddling with the months to maximise the return. > Compared to Forbes estimate of his net worth at $4.5 billion ... There is a good chance that the $4.5 billion Forbes estimate is a significant overestimation. There is no downside for Forbes to overestimating his fortune, but a significant one in underestimating: they risk getting sued by Trump. See [2], on how he lost a lawsuit in 2006 when a journalist claimed that he was only worth $250 million. It also contains examples of how Trump inflates his net worth. The fact that he still hasn't released his tax returns and has no plans to do so, also speaks volumes. > ...and Trump's own estimate of his net worth at $10.0 billion at the same date. Given his long history of lying his own claim is useless. [1] https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/ https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/ [2] http://www.forbes.com/sites/chasewithorn/2016/03/31/how-donald-trump-exaggerates-and-fibs-about-his-4-5-billion-net-worth/#311e5f30787e http://www.forbes.com/sites/chasewithorn/2016/03/31/how-dona...
lend000 10y ago
An important note: this assumes he spent no money. Obviously, this is a ridiculous assumption, as he has lived a very ostentatious and expensive lifestyle.

imron 10y ago

> If he had done absolutely nothing with his dad's money, except park it in an index fund, he'd be 4 times richer. That's actually not correct. He says he got a $1,000,000 loan in 1975. The Fortune article picks a time 13 years after his first loan, and coincidentally at the start of a bull market. I'm not sure how that comparison is valid. See a more thorough analysis here: https://dqydj.com/donald-trump-beat-sp-500-index-funds/ https://dqydj.com/donald-trump-beat-sp-500-index-funds/ Which indicates that if you count from when he started, he did beat the market.

Locke1689 10y ago
Except that all the numbers on his net worth are based just on his word and he's clearly a serial liar. Interestingly, I think the fact that he's quite stupid may be how he succeeded at the presidential election. An intelligent, principled person would have a vision and philosophy that guides their actions. When questioned on details or specifics they would use their philosophy to arrive at a reasoned answer. Trump has essentially no record of this. He has no governing philosophy or sophisticated understanding of how the world works. He seems to do nothing but say what he feels in that moment -- even if how he feels isn't backed up by any reality. However, in certain election environments that can also be a huge benefit. If the electorate is looking for a foil, someone to reflect their feelings, and the electorate itself isn't acting on calculated reasoning, the dunce with an acute sense of emotional environment is the perfect avatar. In a sense, the reasoned candidate is at an inherent disadvantage since they will attempt to articulate a particular philosophy. If the electorate is mostly a coalition based on shared emotional reaction, stating a clear philosophy can do nothing but weaken support among your own constituency. In essence, being specific allows people to disagree with you. If you hand wave, they just imagine you think like they do, since they already think you feel like they do. I can think of another group of people who a similar skillset: confidence artists. They're often not very bright or very skilled, but they are good at reading a room, a person, and an emotion. Interestingly, I don't believe Trump believes himself to be a con-artist; he's just a natural.
- imron 10y ago
  > Except that all the numbers on his net worth are based just on his word and he's clearly a serial liar. No they're not, the link I provided also showed figures based on Forbes estimate of his net worth. $40,000,000 (Trump's share of his father's fortune) invested in the market in 1974 would be worth $1.22 billion in 2015 (when he announced his campaign). Compared to Forbes estimate of his net worth at $4.5 billion and Trump's own estimate of his net worth at $10.0 billion at the same date. Both beat the market handily and in fact Forbes could have overestimated his fortune by triple the amount and Trump would still be ahead. > An intelligent, principled person Again, I'm not talking about principled, I'm making the argument purely that Trump is intelligent. Not whether he is principled, or a good person, or a good businessman or even if he's a good president. > He has no governing philosophy I don't know about that. From what I can tell, he seems to consistently follow the same or similar playbook outlined in 'The Art of the Deal'.
  - xapata 10y ago
    > Art of the Deal The ghostwriter of that book says he made the whole thing up, because Trump got bored so quickly he wouldn't sit for an interview longer than 10 minutes.
    - imron 10y ago
      Regardless of whether or not his ghostwriter is telling the truth, Trump didn't need to write it in order to follow the book's advice. If you look at what the book talks about and you see how Trump acts, there are many similarities.
  - pg314 10y ago
    > $40,000,000 (Trump's share of his father's fortune) invested in the market in 1974 would be worth $1.22 billion in 2015 (when he announced his campaign). How did you get that number? Did you include re-invested dividends? If you start in October 1974 and end in June 2015, you get a return of 9817.096% with dividends reinvested and only 2923.171% without [1]. So starting with $40 million you would end up closer to $4 billion. Admittedly that is after fiddling with the months to maximise the return. > Compared to Forbes estimate of his net worth at $4.5 billion ... There is a good chance that the $4.5 billion Forbes estimate is a significant overestimation. There is no downside for Forbes to overestimating his fortune, but a significant one in underestimating: they risk getting sued by Trump. See [2], on how he lost a lawsuit in 2006 when a journalist claimed that he was only worth $250 million. It also contains examples of how Trump inflates his net worth. The fact that he still hasn't released his tax returns and has no plans to do so, also speaks volumes. > ...and Trump's own estimate of his net worth at $10.0 billion at the same date. Given his long history of lying his own claim is useless. [1] https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/ https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/ [2] http://www.forbes.com/sites/chasewithorn/2016/03/31/how-donald-trump-exaggerates-and-fibs-about-his-4-5-billion-net-worth/#311e5f30787e http://www.forbes.com/sites/chasewithorn/2016/03/31/how-dona...

lend000 10y ago

An important note: this assumes he spent no money. Obviously, this is a ridiculous assumption, as he has lived a very ostentatious and expensive lifestyle.