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> Trump lacks intelligence I keep seeing people say this, but I'm not sure it's true. He took a loan of a few million from his father and turned it in to a bi

by imron 10y ago

> Trump lacks intelligence I keep seeing people say this, but I'm not sure it's true. He took a loan of a few million from his father and turned it in to a billion dollar empire. It's difficult to do that without some measure of intelligence. He almost lost that billion dollar empire in '94, but recovered and built it back up again in to a billion dollar empire. It's more difficult to do that without some intelligence. He also out-played all his Republican opponents in the primaries and then Hillary in the general election. It's even more difficult to do that without some intelligence. I remember all the pundits talking about Trump's strategy to win the election and how he didn't have ground game, and it was stupid to be doing all those rallies and campaigning in the states he was campaigning in, and yet it was that very strategy that won him the election. And all those outrage inducing comments and tweets that keep him in the media spotlight and earned him some $2 billion in free advertising.. If Trump is not intelligent, what does it say when Trump seemingly always manages to outsmart his opponents? How many times does it have to happen before you can no longer dismiss it as dumb luck?

gorbachev 10y ago
> He took a loan of a few million from his father and turned it in to a billion dollar empire. http://fortune.com/2015/08/20/donald-trump-index-funds/ http://fortune.com/2015/08/20/donald-trump-index-funds/ What kind of business genius does it take to lag S&P 500 that badly? If he had done absolutely nothing with his dad's money, except park it in an index fund, he'd be 4 times richer. The article linked also compares the investment performance of Bill Gates and Warren Buffett. You can see quite a big difference.
- imron 10y ago
  > If he had done absolutely nothing with his dad's money, except park it in an index fund, he'd be 4 times richer. That's actually not correct. He says he got a $1,000,000 loan in 1975. The Fortune article picks a time 13 years after his first loan, and coincidentally at the start of a bull market. I'm not sure how that comparison is valid. See a more thorough analysis here: https://dqydj.com/donald-trump-beat-sp-500-index-funds/ https://dqydj.com/donald-trump-beat-sp-500-index-funds/ Which indicates that if you count from when he started, he did beat the market.
  - Locke1689 10y ago
    Except that all the numbers on his net worth are based just on his word and he's clearly a serial liar. Interestingly, I think the fact that he's quite stupid may be how he succeeded at the presidential election. An intelligent, principled person would have a vision and philosophy that guides their actions. When questioned on details or specifics they would use their philosophy to arrive at a reasoned answer. Trump has essentially no record of this. He has no governing philosophy or sophisticated understanding of how the world works. He seems to do nothing but say what he feels in that moment -- even if how he feels isn't backed up by any reality. However, in certain election environments that can also be a huge benefit. If the electorate is looking for a foil, someone to reflect their feelings, and the electorate itself isn't acting on calculated reasoning, the dunce with an acute sense of emotional environment is the perfect avatar. In a sense, the reasoned candidate is at an inherent disadvantage since they will attempt to articulate a particular philosophy. If the electorate is mostly a coalition based on shared emotional reaction, stating a clear philosophy can do nothing but weaken support among your own constituency. In essence, being specific allows people to disagree with you. If you hand wave, they just imagine you think like they do, since they already think you feel like they do. I can think of another group of people who a similar skillset: confidence artists. They're often not very bright or very skilled, but they are good at reading a room, a person, and an emotion. Interestingly, I don't believe Trump believes himself to be a con-artist; he's just a natural.
    - imron 10y ago
      > Except that all the numbers on his net worth are based just on his word and he's clearly a serial liar. No they're not, the link I provided also showed figures based on Forbes estimate of his net worth. $40,000,000 (Trump's share of his father's fortune) invested in the market in 1974 would be worth $1.22 billion in 2015 (when he announced his campaign). Compared to Forbes estimate of his net worth at $4.5 billion and Trump's own estimate of his net worth at $10.0 billion at the same date. Both beat the market handily and in fact Forbes could have overestimated his fortune by triple the amount and Trump would still be ahead. > An intelligent, principled person Again, I'm not talking about principled, I'm making the argument purely that Trump is intelligent. Not whether he is principled, or a good person, or a good businessman or even if he's a good president. > He has no governing philosophy I don't know about that. From what I can tell, he seems to consistently follow the same or similar playbook outlined in 'The Art of the Deal'.
- lend000 10y ago
  An important note: this assumes he spent no money. Obviously, this is a ridiculous assumption, as he has lived a very ostentatious and expensive lifestyle.
xapata 10y ago
> He took a loan of a few million from his father and turned it in to a billion dollar empire. See the other comment about how he'd have much more money if he'd plowed his inheritance into an index fund. It's been a story that cropped up every few years for the last decade. He's a bad businessman who keeps going bankrupt and borrowing money from greater fools. This last time, it seems he went into debt to the Russians. Maybe Putin is not so foolish. Honestly, I think he didn't release his tax returns because they'd show he's actually broke and living off borrowed cash. > always manages to outsmart his opponents? Right time, right place. I've seen inept people "succeed" so many times, it makes me weep. But hey, no one likes to hear bad beat stories.
- imron 10y ago
  > See the other comment about how he'd have much more money if he'd plowed his inheritance into an index fund See my other comment about how that's not actually true, but in any case we are not talking about how much money he could have made, or whether he is the most intelligent out of all businessmen, but whether or not he is intelligent. I would argue it takes more intelligence to run a multi-billion dollar empire than it takes to invest in an index fund, even if the index makes larger returns in the long run. Not everyone is motivated by money, especially if your net worth is several hundred million dollars, which it was for Trump at the point when Fortune started the calculation that he would have been better off investing in an index fund. > He's a bad businessman who keeps going bankrupt 6 times out of 100+ businesses? That's not a bad strike rate. > This last time, it seems he went into debt to the Russians. Maybe Putin is not so foolish. > Honestly, I think he didn't release his tax returns because they'd show he's actually broke and living off borrowed cash. And there was me thinking it was the Right that was in to conspiracy theories.
  - xapata 10y ago
    > conspiracy No conspiracy, just one guy. He's said in court deposition (for a lawsuit he lost) that he claims his net worth is however he's feeling that day. > 6 out of 100+ Not all the businesses are equivalent, nor are most of them really his, beyond selling a license to his name. The Trump Organization is less than 200 people, closer to 100. It's mostly real estate deals, not even building management. Not really what comes to mind for the phrase "empire". He certainly wants that, though.

by imron 10y ago

gorbachev 10y ago

> He took a loan of a few million from his father and turned it in to a billion dollar empire. http://fortune.com/2015/08/20/donald-trump-index-funds/ http://fortune.com/2015/08/20/donald-trump-index-funds/ What kind of business genius does it take to lag S&P 500 that badly? If he had done absolutely nothing with his dad's money, except park it in an index fund, he'd be 4 times richer. The article linked also compares the investment performance of Bill Gates and Warren Buffett. You can see quite a big difference.

imron 10y ago
> If he had done absolutely nothing with his dad's money, except park it in an index fund, he'd be 4 times richer. That's actually not correct. He says he got a $1,000,000 loan in 1975. The Fortune article picks a time 13 years after his first loan, and coincidentally at the start of a bull market. I'm not sure how that comparison is valid. See a more thorough analysis here: https://dqydj.com/donald-trump-beat-sp-500-index-funds/ https://dqydj.com/donald-trump-beat-sp-500-index-funds/ Which indicates that if you count from when he started, he did beat the market.
- Locke1689 10y ago
  Except that all the numbers on his net worth are based just on his word and he's clearly a serial liar. Interestingly, I think the fact that he's quite stupid may be how he succeeded at the presidential election. An intelligent, principled person would have a vision and philosophy that guides their actions. When questioned on details or specifics they would use their philosophy to arrive at a reasoned answer. Trump has essentially no record of this. He has no governing philosophy or sophisticated understanding of how the world works. He seems to do nothing but say what he feels in that moment -- even if how he feels isn't backed up by any reality. However, in certain election environments that can also be a huge benefit. If the electorate is looking for a foil, someone to reflect their feelings, and the electorate itself isn't acting on calculated reasoning, the dunce with an acute sense of emotional environment is the perfect avatar. In a sense, the reasoned candidate is at an inherent disadvantage since they will attempt to articulate a particular philosophy. If the electorate is mostly a coalition based on shared emotional reaction, stating a clear philosophy can do nothing but weaken support among your own constituency. In essence, being specific allows people to disagree with you. If you hand wave, they just imagine you think like they do, since they already think you feel like they do. I can think of another group of people who a similar skillset: confidence artists. They're often not very bright or very skilled, but they are good at reading a room, a person, and an emotion. Interestingly, I don't believe Trump believes himself to be a con-artist; he's just a natural.
  - imron 10y ago
    > Except that all the numbers on his net worth are based just on his word and he's clearly a serial liar. No they're not, the link I provided also showed figures based on Forbes estimate of his net worth. $40,000,000 (Trump's share of his father's fortune) invested in the market in 1974 would be worth $1.22 billion in 2015 (when he announced his campaign). Compared to Forbes estimate of his net worth at $4.5 billion and Trump's own estimate of his net worth at $10.0 billion at the same date. Both beat the market handily and in fact Forbes could have overestimated his fortune by triple the amount and Trump would still be ahead. > An intelligent, principled person Again, I'm not talking about principled, I'm making the argument purely that Trump is intelligent. Not whether he is principled, or a good person, or a good businessman or even if he's a good president. > He has no governing philosophy I don't know about that. From what I can tell, he seems to consistently follow the same or similar playbook outlined in 'The Art of the Deal'.
lend000 10y ago
An important note: this assumes he spent no money. Obviously, this is a ridiculous assumption, as he has lived a very ostentatious and expensive lifestyle.

xapata 10y ago

> He took a loan of a few million from his father and turned it in to a billion dollar empire. See the other comment about how he'd have much more money if he'd plowed his inheritance into an index fund. It's been a story that cropped up every few years for the last decade. He's a bad businessman who keeps going bankrupt and borrowing money from greater fools. This last time, it seems he went into debt to the Russians. Maybe Putin is not so foolish. Honestly, I think he didn't release his tax returns because they'd show he's actually broke and living off borrowed cash. > always manages to outsmart his opponents? Right time, right place. I've seen inept people "succeed" so many times, it makes me weep. But hey, no one likes to hear bad beat stories.

imron 10y ago
> See the other comment about how he'd have much more money if he'd plowed his inheritance into an index fund See my other comment about how that's not actually true, but in any case we are not talking about how much money he could have made, or whether he is the most intelligent out of all businessmen, but whether or not he is intelligent. I would argue it takes more intelligence to run a multi-billion dollar empire than it takes to invest in an index fund, even if the index makes larger returns in the long run. Not everyone is motivated by money, especially if your net worth is several hundred million dollars, which it was for Trump at the point when Fortune started the calculation that he would have been better off investing in an index fund. > He's a bad businessman who keeps going bankrupt 6 times out of 100+ businesses? That's not a bad strike rate. > This last time, it seems he went into debt to the Russians. Maybe Putin is not so foolish. > Honestly, I think he didn't release his tax returns because they'd show he's actually broke and living off borrowed cash. And there was me thinking it was the Right that was in to conspiracy theories.
- xapata 10y ago
  > conspiracy No conspiracy, just one guy. He's said in court deposition (for a lawsuit he lost) that he claims his net worth is however he's feeling that day. > 6 out of 100+ Not all the businesses are equivalent, nor are most of them really his, beyond selling a license to his name. The Trump Organization is less than 200 people, closer to 100. It's mostly real estate deals, not even building management. Not really what comes to mind for the phrase "empire". He certainly wants that, though.